波力発電市場シェア分析、業界動向と統計、成長予測 2026-2031年

波力発電市場の設備容量規模は、2025年に4メガワット、2026年に10メガワット、そして2031年には125メガワットに成長し、2026年から2031年にかけて年平均成長率（CAGR）65.72%に達するとMordor Intelligenceでは予測しています。

欧州連合（EU）およびアジア太平洋地域における政府支援の固定価格買取制度（FIT）や差金決済契約（CFD）制度が、最初の商用波力発電設備の導入を後押しする一方、民間資本は、事業化の可能性を示す実証プロジェクトを加速させています。モジュール式の動力取り出し装置（PTO）設計、複合材製の船体、リアルタイム制御ソフトウェアなどがコストの急速な低下を促し、設備投資とメンテナンス停止時間の両方を削減しています。早期導入企業は、波力発電装置を海水淡水化、洋上石油・ガスプラットフォームの電化、Power-to-Xハブなどと組み合わせることで、送電網の拡張が困難または高コストな地域において、予測可能な波浪を収益化しています。波力発電市場は、事前に許可された区域を区分けする海洋空間計画の枠組みからも恩恵を受けており、許可取得までの期間が短縮され、保有コストが削減されている。

主要レポートの要点

• タイプ別に見ると、振動体型波力発電装置（OBD）は2025年に波力発電市場の59.7%を占め、2031年まで年平均成長率（CAGR）93.5%で成長すると予測されています。
• 設置場所別に見ると、陸上防波堤型波力発電設備は2025年に市場規模の60.5%を占め、一方、沖合浅海域型プロジェクトは2026年から2031年にかけて年平均成長率90.9%で成長が見込まれています。
• 用途別に見ると、発電が2025年に収益シェア76.9%を占め、海水淡水化は2031年まで年平均成長率87.2%で拡大すると予測されています。
• 地域別に見ると、欧州は2025年時点で設備容量の75.1%を維持する一方、アジア太平洋地域は2031年まで年平均成長率84.4%と最も高い成長率を記録しています。

タイプ別：ポイントアブソーバーが勢いを増す

振動体型波力発電装置（主にポイントアブソーバー）は、2025年の設備容量の59.7%を占める見込みです。この分野の波力発電市場規模は、標準化されたモジュールの量産化に支えられ、年平均成長率（CAGR）93.5%で成長すると予測されています。HiWave-5などの装置に搭載された位相制御アルゴリズムはエネルギー回収率を向上させ、投資家はこの技術を実用化間近と見なすようになりました。この分野の信頼性向上は、耐久性試験から収益重視の導入へと、より広範な移行を後押ししています。

ポイントアブソーバーの需要は、柔軟な係留オプションによってさらに強化されています。これにより、防波堤の改修や浅瀬への設置など、様々な用途に適しています。複合材外装は腐食性の高い海洋環境における耐用年数を延ばし、ダウンタイムを年次点検のみに限定します。これらの改良により、保険料と資金調達コストが削減され、波力発電市場における振動体型波力発電装置の優位性が確固たるものとなっています。

Wave Energy Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The Wave Energy Market size in terms of installed base is projected to be 4 megawatt in 2025, 10 megawatt in 2026, and reach 125 megawatt by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 65.72% from 2026 to 2031.

Government-backed feed-in tariffs and contract-for-difference schemes across the European Union and Asia-Pacific are anchoring the first commercial arrays, while private capital is accelerating demonstration projects that prove bankability. Modular power-take-off designs, composite hulls, and real-time control software are driving rapid cost declines, reducing both capital outlay and maintenance downtime. Early adopters are pairing wave devices with desalination, offshore oil and gas platform electrification, and Power-to-X hubs to monetize predictable swells where grid extensions are either slow or costly. The wave energy market is also benefiting from marine spatial-planning frameworks that carve out pre-consented zones, shortening permit windows and lowering holding costs.

Key Report Takeaways

• By type, oscillating body converters held 59.7% of the wave energy market share in 2025 and are projected to post a 93.5% CAGR through 2031.
• By deployment location, onshore breakwater sites accounted for 60.5% of the wave energy market size in 2025, while offshore shallow-shelf projects are advancing at a 90.9% CAGR over 2026-2031.
• By application, power generation led with 76.9% revenue share in 2025; desalination is forecast to expand at an 87.2% CAGR to 2031.
• By geography, Europe retained 75.1% of installed capacity in 2025, whereas Asia-Pacific records the fastest growth at an 84.4% CAGR through 2031.

Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.

Global Wave Energy Market Trends and Insights

Feed-in-tariff & Contract-for-difference Schemes Expand in EU & APAC

Member-state targets under the European Renewable Energy Directive III require that 5% of new renewable capacity between 2025 and 2030 come from innovative sources, explicitly naming wave technologies.[1] Ireland’s Marine Energy Programme, Horizon Europe grants, and Taiwan’s first contract-for-difference agreement for wave power create predictable revenue streams that derisk early projects. These incentives shorten payback periods, attract venture backing, and move the wave energy market from prototype trials to pre-commercial clusters. Developers in India and Portugal are already securing long-term tariffs at premiums that mirror early offshore-wind support schemes. The success of these frameworks is prompting other Asia-Pacific governments to draft similar support mechanisms, enlarging the investable project pipeline.

Demand for Ocean-Sourced Baseload Renewables to Balance Wind and Solar

Wave devices deliver capacity factors of 25-35% today and up to 40-48% in optimized forecasts, smoothing supply during solar and wind lulls.[2] Island grids in Hawaii, the Canary Islands, and King Island deploy wave arrays to displace diesel generation without relying on large battery systems. U.S. federal programs such as the Waves to Water Prize fund off-grid desalination buoys that use direct mechanical pressure rather than grid electricity. Commercial operators of remote mining and aquaculture sites adopt wave energy to cut fuel logistics and lower emissions penalties. Collectively, these baseload applications widen the customer base and accelerate scale economies for the wave energy market.

Cost Decline from Composite Structures & Modular PTOs

Capital expenditure per kilowatt must fall from USD 25,061 in 2026 to USD 2025 by 2050 for parity with offshore wind.[3] Composite materials trim hull weight by up to 40%, easing transport and mooring loads. Horizon Europe’s MEGA WAVE project has demonstrated magnetic-gear PTOs that raise generator efficiency by 10%. CorPower Ocean reports a five-fold energy-capture boost through phase-control algorithms, validating real-time tuning strategies. As modular PTOs enter serial manufacture, spare parts commonality drops service intervals and increases availability. These factors together improve project economics, extending the addressable market beyond subsidized pilots.

Rising Venture & Infrastructure Fund Investments in Demonstrator Arrays

Series B rounds and EU Innovation Fund grants have delivered more than USD 93.6 million to leading European developers since 2024.[4] In Latin America, a USD 1 billion commitment in Brazil backs a 550 MW pipeline that will rely on local supply chains to avoid currency risk. Canada, Japan, and Argentina are channeling public grants toward TRL-7 and TRL-8 demonstrations, advancing devices toward bankable status. Specialized infrastructure funds are crafting lease models reminiscent of solar third-party ownership, lowering balance-sheet stress for technology firms. This influx of blended finance shortens the technology-learning curve and builds confidence in the global wave energy market.

High CAPEX & LCOE Gap Versus Mature Renewables

Wave energy’s 2025 levelized cost of USD 388-618 MWh is three to six times that of utility-scale solar, deterring merchant investments. Learning-curve studies by NREL show costs may drop to USD 0.07-0.13 kWh by 2050, conditional on multi-gigawatt roll-outs. Early adopters, therefore, depend on tariffs exceeding USD 351 MWh or direct capital subsidies. In emerging markets, willingness to pay is below USD 0.10 kWh, widening the financing gap. Without continued policy support, the wave energy market risks stalling before economies of scale can unlock parity.

Grid Interconnection & Multi-Agency Permitting Hurdles

Projects such as PacWave South required approvals from at least six U.S. federal agencies, with timelines exceeding 36 months. Similar multi-agency reviews in Taiwan and Spain slow sub-100 MW arrays that need rapid execution to meet investor hurdle rates. The absence of pre-consented marine-energy zones adds study costs and extends seabed lease negotiations. Developers recommend the adoption of the U.K. Crown Estate model, which cut offshore-wind consent times by half. Until such frameworks spread globally, the permitting bottleneck will temper growth in the wave energy market.

*Our forecasts treat driver/restraint impacts as directional, not additive. The impact forecasts reflect baseline growth, mix effects, and variable interactions.

Segment Analysis

By Type: Point Absorbers Gain Momentum

Oscillating body converters, mainly point absorbers, captured 59.7% of installed capacity in 2025. The wave energy market size for this segment is on course to grow at a 93.5% CAGR, supported by serial production of standardized modules. Phase-control algorithms in devices such as HiWave-5 have lifted energy-capture ratios, helping investors view the technology as near-commercial. The segment’s rising reliability underpins a broader shift from survivability testing to revenue-focused deployments.

Demand for point absorbers is reinforced by their flexible mooring options, making them suitable for both breakwater retrofits and shallow-shelf foundations. Composite cladding extends service lives in corrosive marine environments, limiting downtime to scheduled annual inspections. These improvements lower the cost of insurance and financing, securing a durable lead for oscillating body converters within the wave energy market.

By Deployment Location: Shallow Shelf Accelerates

Onshore breakwaters dominated early roll-outs, claiming 60.5% of 2025 capacity thanks to simplified permitting and grid proximity. However, shallow-shelf sites 2-20 km offshore are advancing at a 90.9% CAGR, and their share of the wave energy market size is projected to overtake onshore installations after 2028. These sites combine higher wave power density with manageable foundation costs, making yields more compelling for utilities.

Resource assessments in Portugal, California, and Scotland confirm that the 25-60 m depth band offers 30-50 kW m-¹ of wave energy, enough to support multi-megawatt clusters. Developers also avoid conflicts with recreation and fisheries nearer the coast. As specialist vessels and dynamic-cable crews mature, shallow-shelf uptime is converging on near-shore benchmarks, cementing the segment’s long-run growth trajectory.

By Application: Desalination Emerges as a High-Growth Niche

Power generation held 76.9% revenue share in 2025, but desalination is forecast to record an 87.2% CAGR, the fastest within the wave energy market. Islands and arid coastal zones view wave-powered reverse osmosis as a route to water security without adding grid demand. EU-funded pilots in the Canary Islands and U.S. Department of Energy prize winners demonstrate competitive specific-energy consumption of 2-3.5 kWh m-³.

Wave-based desalination also unlocks carbon-credit revenue streams under emerging blue-water frameworks. Standardized buoy-mounted units can be redeployed as freshwater needs shift, a flexibility grid-tied plants lack. Together, these factors move desalination from curiosity to bankable segment, diversifying revenue for the wave energy market.

Complete Report Scope:

Geography Analysis

Europe anchors the wave energy market with 75.1% of installed capacity in 2025. Robust policy support under Renewable Energy Directive III, plus Horizon Europe’s USD 273.78 million marine-energy budget, ensures a steady queue of 1-10 MW arrays, feeding a regional supply chain that now exports components to Asia-Pacific. The United Kingdom, Ireland, and Portugal each combine feed-in premiums with test-site infrastructure, accelerating learning rates.

Asia-Pacific shows the fastest growth, charting an 84.4% CAGR through 2031, powered by India’s 40 GW theoretical potential, Taiwan’s 20 MW medium-term target, and Japan’s NEDO-backed demonstrations. Local oil and gas majors in Indonesia and Malaysia are trialing co-location concepts, providing anchor customers for early arrays. China’s Beibu Gulf cavity revetment system reports levelized costs near grid parity, proving feasibility in low-labor-cost markets.

North America, South America, and the Middle East are emerging frontiers. California’s Senate Bill 605 flags 37 GW of state coastal resources, yet only PacWave South is fully permitted. Brazil’s USD 1 billion Santa Catarina initiative exemplifies sovereign-wealth backing aimed at import substitution. Saudi Arabia’s NEOM evaluates Red Sea prototypes within its 120 GW 2032 renewable commitment, potentially opening a new high-insolation yet wave-rich geography to hybrid solutions.

Competitive Landscape

No developer surpasses 10% market share, placing the wave energy market in a fragmented phase that rewards engineering breakthroughs and rapid cost decline. CorPower Ocean and Eco Wave Power demonstrate contrasting strategies: vertically integrated manufacturing versus breakwater co-location, but both leverage proven uptime to attract capital. Venture rounds now exceed USD 35.1 million per deal, signaling investor confidence.

Standardization is emerging via IEC Technical Committee 114 design codes, lowering insurance premiums and widening project-finance options. Technology licensors that focus on modular PTOs can penetrate faster than turnkey developers, as seen in partnership models adopted by Mocean Energy and Wello Oy. Regionally integrated supply chains in Brazil and China aim to localize content, potentially shifting cost leadership southward once domestic projects scale.

White-space opportunities extend to desalination, offshore platform power, and Power-to-X hubs. Companies with flexible architectures and proven remote-monitoring platforms are best placed to win these niches. The competitive field, therefore, re remains dynamic, with consolidation likely only after multi-megawatt commercial arrays deliver three-year track records.

Recent Industry Developments

• March 2026: Eco Wave Power reported a 404.7 MW global pipeline in its SEC Form 20-F, confirming zero downtime at Jaffa Port since early 2025
• February 2026: Eco Wave Power signed a letter of intent with Wavefront Asset Management to finance equipment for upcoming Portuguese and Israeli projects.
• December 2025: Brazil’s National Institute of Oceanic Research received BRL 15 million for a Blue Energy Center to advance wave-converter R&D.
• November 2025: Argentina completed a dry test of its first full-scale device at Metalúrgica Duroll, moving toward a 2027 grid-connected launch.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Ocean Power Technologies, Inc.
• Eco Wave Power Ltd.
• Carnegie Clean Energy Ltd.
• CorPower Ocean AB
• AW-Energy Oy
• SINN Power GmbH
• Mocean Energy Ltd.
• Wello Oy
• Wave Swell Energy Ltd.
• Seabased AB
• Resolute Marine Energy, Inc.
• Oscilla Power, Inc.
• Bombora Wave Power Pty Ltd.
• Infinite Power Ltd.
• Havkraft AS
• Floating Power Plant A/S
• Seatricity Ltd.
• AWS Ocean Energy Ltd.
• Wave Dragon ApS
• INGINE Inc.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

Table of Contents

1 Introduction
1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.2.1 Feed-in-tariff & contract-for-difference schemes expand in EU & APAC
4.2.2 Demand for ocean-sourced baseload renewables to balance wind/solar
4.2.3 Cost decline from composite structures & modular PTOs
4.2.4 Rising venture & infrastructure fund investments in demonstrator arrays
4.2.5 Power-to-X hubs (green hydrogen/ammonia) integrating wave devices
4.2.6 Decarbonisation mandates for offshore O&G platforms driving co-location
4.3 Market Restraints
4.3.1 High CAPEX & LCOE gap versus mature renewables
4.3.2 Grid interconnection & multi-agency permitting hurdles
4.3.3 Marine-spatial conflict with future deep-sea mining zones
4.3.4 Shortage of specialised far-shore maintenance vessels & crew
4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
4.5 Regulatory Landscape
4.6 Technological Outlook
4.7 Porter’s Five Forces
4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
4.7.5 Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts
5.1 By Type
5.1.1 Oscillating Water Column
5.1.2 Oscillating Body Converters
5.1.3 Overtopping Converters
5.2 By Deployment Location
5.2.1 Onshore (fixed breakwater)
5.2.2 Near-shore (Up to 2 km, Over 25 m depth)
5.2.3 Offshore – Shallow Shelf (2 to 20 km, 25 to 60 m)
5.2.4 Offshore – Deep Water (More than 20 km, More than 60 m)
5.3 By Application
5.3.1 Power Generation
5.3.2 Desalination
5.3.3 Environmental Protection (breakwaters, reef restoration)
5.3.4 Others
5.4 By Geography
5.4.1 North America
5.4.1.1 United States
5.4.1.2 Canada
5.4.1.3 Mexico
5.4.2 Europe
5.4.2.1 United Kingdom
5.4.2.2 France
5.4.2.3 Spain
5.4.2.4 Netherland
5.4.2.5 Denmark
5.4.2.6 Russia
5.4.2.7 Rest of Europe
5.4.3 Asia-Pacific
5.4.3.1 China
5.4.3.2 India
5.4.3.3 Japan
5.4.3.4 South Korea
5.4.3.5 ASEAN Countries
5.4.3.6 Australia and New Zealand
5.4.3.7 Rest of Asia-Pacific
5.4.4 South America
5.4.4.1 Brazil
5.4.4.2 Argentina
5.4.4.3 Colombia
5.4.4.4 Rest of South America
5.4.5 Middle East and Africa
5.4.5.1 United Arab Emirates
5.4.5.2 Saudi Arabia
5.4.5.3 South Africa
5.4.5.4 Egypt
5.4.5.5 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
6.4.1 Ocean Power Technologies, Inc.
6.4.2 Eco Wave Power Ltd.
6.4.3 Carnegie Clean Energy Ltd.
6.4.4 CorPower Ocean AB
6.4.5 AW-Energy Oy
6.4.6 SINN Power GmbH
6.4.7 Mocean Energy Ltd.
6.4.8 Wello Oy
6.4.9 Wave Swell Energy Ltd.
6.4.10 Seabased AB
6.4.11 Resolute Marine Energy, Inc.
6.4.12 Oscilla Power, Inc.
6.4.13 Bombora Wave Power Pty Ltd.
6.4.14 Infinite Power Ltd.
6.4.15 Havkraft AS
6.4.16 Floating Power Plant A/S
6.4.17 Seatricity Ltd.
6.4.18 AWS Ocean Energy Ltd.
6.4.19 Wave Dragon ApS
6.4.20 INGINE Inc.

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook
7.1 White-space & Unmet-need Assessment

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