宇宙技術市場シェア分析、業界動向と統計、成長予測 2026-2031年

宇宙技術市場規模は、2025年の2,885億8,000万米ドル、2026年の3,050億1,000万米ドルから、2031年には3,964億8,000万米ドルに成長し、2026年から2031年までの年平均成長率（CAGR）は5.39%に達するとMordor Intelligenceでは予測しています。かつて政府中心だった宇宙技術は、民間事業者の手によって再構築されつつあり、民間資本は低軌道（LEO）ブロードバンド衛星群、軌道上サービス、宇宙旅行へと向けられています。再利用可能な打ち上げシステムはキログラム当たりの価格を引き下げ、ソフトウェア定義衛星は固定ペイロードに取って代わり、国家安全保障機関は少数の高性能衛星ではなく、堅牢で分散型の衛星群を調達するようになっています。こうした変化に合わせて設備投資を行う事業者は、宇宙ゴミ対策、輸出規制、打ち上げ許可に関する規制監督が強化される中でも、新たな収益源を見出しています。

主要レポートの要点

• サブシステム別に見ると、打ち上げロケットのハードウェアが2025年の収益の31.28%を占めてトップとなり、ペイロード機器は2031年まで年平均成長率6.17%で成長すると予測されています。
• エンドユーザー別に見ると、商業部門は2025年の収益の46.48%を占め、2031年まで年平均成長率6.06%で拡大しています。
• 用途別に見ると、通信分野は2025年時点で収益の38.57%を占める見込みだが、宇宙旅行および軌道上サービスは2031年まで5.96%と最も速い成長率を示すと予測されています。
• 軌道タイプ別に見ると、LEOプラットフォームは2025年の活動の55.06%を占め、2031年まで年平均成長率5.91%で増加すると予測されています。
• 地域別に見ると、北米は2025年の収益の40.12%を占める一方、アジア太平洋地域は2031年までに6.29%と最も急速な成長を示しています。

Space Technology Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The space technology market size is projected to expand from USD 288.58 billion in 2025 and USD 305.01 billion in 2026 to USD 396.48 billion by 2031, registering a CAGR of 5.39% between 2026 and 2031. Commercial operators are reshaping what was once a government-centric domain, channelling private capital toward low Earth orbit (LEO) broadband constellations, in-orbit servicing, and space tourism. Reusable launch systems are compressing per-kilogram pricing, software-defined satellites are displacing fixed payloads, and national-security buyers are procuring resilient proliferated constellations instead of a handful of exquisite craft. Operators that align capital spending with these shifts are finding new revenue streams even as regulatory oversight around debris mitigation, export controls, and launch licensing tightens.

Key Report Takeaways

• By subsystem, launch vehicle hardware led with 31.28% of 2025 revenue, while payload equipment is advancing at a 6.17% CAGR through 2031.
• By end-use, commercial entities held 46.48% of 2025 revenue and are expanding at a 6.06% CAGR to 2031.
• By application, communication retained 38.57% revenue share in 2025, yet space tourism and in-orbit services post the fastest growth at 5.96% through 2031.
• By orbit type, LEO platforms captured 55.06% of 2025 activity and are rising at a 5.91% CAGR to 2031.
• By geography, North America commanded 40.12% of 2025 revenue, whereas Asia-Pacific shows the quickest advance at 6.29% through 2031.

Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.

Global Space Technology Market Trends and Insights

Rapidly Falling Launch Costs Via Reusable Vehicles

Falcon 9 first stages completed 23 reflights in 2025, lowering marginal launch prices to roughly USD 28 million per mission and proving that hardware can survive repeated entry and landing cycles without major refurbishment.[1] Rocket Lab introduced helicopter-assisted booster recovery in 2024, cutting refurbishment time below 30 days and giving small-satellite operators the cadence they need.[2] Blue Origin’s New Glenn, awarded seven national-security launches, is designed for 25 flights and targets sub-USD 50 million pricing per heavy mission. Cost compression frees capital for satellite replenishment, making frequent refresh cycles economical and shortening design-to-orbit timelines.

Rising Government Investments in Space Programs

NASA’s FY 2026 appropriation rose 7% to USD 27.2 billion, funding Artemis lunar logistics, earth-science missions, and commercial crew contracts.[3]The European Space Agency (ESA) secured a 17% uplift to EUR 17.5 billion (USD 19.8 billion) through 2027, ring-fencing funds for Ariane 6 flights, the IRIS² secure-communications constellation, and zero-debris initiatives. India boosted its Department of Space budget 12% to INR 130 billion (USD 1.56 billion) to finance the Gaganyaan crewed flight and open launch licenses to private firms. State spending is no longer solely science-driven; it now anchors commercial broadband, climate monitoring, and defense-grade surveillance.

Miniaturization Enabling Affordable Satellite Constellations

Component downsizing lets operators squeeze multifunction payloads into sub-500 kg buses. Planet Labs flies more than 200 five-kilogram imagers that deliver daily global coverage for agriculture and insurance clients. Software-defined radios enable one spacecraft to beam across multiple bands without new hardware, shortening development cycles. Optical inter-satellite links fielded on Starlink Gen2 relay traffic through space, trimming latency and shielding data from ground-based jamming. CubeSat kits priced under USD 100,000 are within reach of universities and startups, widening participation but compounding congestion in popular LEO lanes.

National-Security Focus on Resilient Space Architectures

The U.S. Space Force Commercial Space Strategy directs procurement toward proliferated constellations that spread capability across hundreds of units, denying adversaries single shot kill options. Europe is mirroring the approach with the IRIS² program that will deploy secure regional coverage independent of non-European providers. Asia-Pacific defense agencies are funding sovereign tracking and reconnaissance networks to complement imported services, raising baseline demand for launch, payload, and data-analytics contracts.

Orbital Debris, Congestion, And Space-Traffic Management Gaps

The FCC shortened permissible deorbit time from 25 years to 5 years for U.S.-licensed craft, but enforcement abroad is patchy, leading to asymmetric compliance. ESA’s voluntary Zero Debris Charter seeks debris-neutral missions by 2030, yet funding for active removal remains uncertain. Astroscale’s COSMIC mission will attempt magnetic docking and controlled re-entry in 2026; success could set cost benchmarks for compulsory cleanup. Operators report rising avoidance manoeuvres in sun-synchronous bands, burning propellant and shortening service life.

High Up-Front CAPEX And R&D Expenditure

A single GEO telecom satellite still runs USD 250 million–USD 400 million, and a broadband LEO network demands billions before revenue flows. Private investment climbed to USD 12.5 billion in 2023 but skewed toward late-stage firms, leaving pioneers to rely on government grants or patient family offices. Blue Origin has spent roughly USD 2.5 billion on New Glenn without yet flying a revenue mission. Long certification cycles in propulsion and thermal management extend break-even horizons and discourage newcomers.

*Our forecasts treat driver/restraint impacts as directional, not additive. The impact forecasts reflect baseline growth, mix effects, and variable interactions.

Segment Analysis

By Subsystem: Payload Upgrades Accelerate Commercial Flexibility

Payload equipment is on track to outgrow every other subsystem at a 6.17% CAGR. Operators favour reconfigurable transponders that can shift spectrum or beam patterns in orbit, mitigating market-demand uncertainty and supporting incremental revenue streams. Launch vehicle hardware, despite holding 31.28% of 2025 revenue, faces margin pressure as reusable rockets standardize low pricing. Orbit segment ground networks are pivoting to cloud-hosted antenna-as-a-service, while new spaceports in Scotland and Oman aim to capture regional demand. Software-defined satellites integrate optical links and on-board processing, making them the focal point of capital spending.

The transition boosts the space technology market size for payloads relative to boosters while lifting the space technology market share of firms that supply software-defined electronics. Optical inter-satellite link providers, 3D-printed RF-component manufacturers, and on-board AI-chip designers are scaling to meet order books that stretch into the latter half of the decade.

By End-Use: Commercial Buyers Drive Volume and Innovation

Commercial customers already account for nearly half of market revenue and are growing faster than civil agencies and militaries. Direct-to-device broadband, subscription earth-imaging, and cloud relay services give enterprises predictable recurring income streams, supporting private financing in lieu of single government anchor contracts. Defense agencies remain critical in absolute dollars yet increasingly outsource launches and hosted payloads to commercial providers for schedule certainty.

Consequently, the space technology market size tied to commercial activity is rising faster than government programs, and companies capturing that demand are widening their space technology market share through service bundling launch, satellite, ground segment, and analytics under one contract.

By Application: Communication Mature, Tourism and Servicing Ascend

Communication payloads dominate but face substitution threats from fiber and 5G terrestrial backhaul, pushing GEO operators to adopt in-orbit reconfiguration and high-throughput architectures. Space tourism, restarting suborbital flights in 2026, and in-orbit servicing, validated by mission extension vehicles, open fresh revenue lines. Earth observation continues to fragment into optical, SAR, and thermal niches, each tuned to sector-specific analytics.

These shifts redistribute the space technology market size across emerging verticals while prompting incumbents to defend space technology market share with hybrid business models that couple data delivery with analytic insight or life-extension services.

By Orbit Type: LEO Economics Prevail but MEO And GEO Adapt

LEO remains the growth engine, offering sub-30 ms latency and rapid replacement cycles. MEO systems such as O3b mPOWER serve mobility markets requiring higher throughput per spacecraft, whereas GEO incumbents extend life spans with electric propulsion and shift to software-defined payloads that mimic LEO agility. Very-low Earth orbit projects trade higher drag for even lower latency but require frequent station-keeping.

The outcome is a layered orbital ecosystem in which each altitude addresses distinct latency, coverage, and capacity trade-offs, ensuring the space technology market accommodates multiple architectures instead of a single dominant approach.

Complete Report Scope:

Geography Analysis

North America retains leadership on the strength of Pentagon launch contracts, NASA spending, and deep venture pools clustered in California, Colorado, and Florida. Regulatory agencies, notably the FCC and FAA, shape deployment cadences through orbital-debris and launch-safety rules. Canada partners on lunar Gateway modules and invests in SAR constellations, while Mexico advances its first domestically built satellite in collaboration with academic institutions.

Asia-Pacific delivers the highest regional CAGR as India liberalizes commercial launches and China executes the world’s busiest manifest. Japan’s H3 rocket returns to flight with UAE and domestic contracts, South Korea’s Nuri program builds sovereign lift capacity, and Southeast Asian nations fund pad facilities and ground segments. Middle Eastern governments, led by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, inject multi-billion-dollar budgets to diversify economies and cultivate indigenous satellite manufacturing.

Europe’s Ariane 6 restores autonomous heavy-lift capacity, and the forthcoming IRIS² constellation underscores the continent’s push for strategic independence. United Kingdom certification of SaxaVord Spaceport opens polar-orbit opportunities, while ESA’s zero-debris initiatives influence design rules across member states. Africa and South America remain smaller but invest in ground infrastructure and rideshare missions to support agriculture and forestry monitoring.

Competitive Landscape

Launch services display moderate concentration because SpaceX commands around 60% of global missions, but satellite manufacturing, ground networks, and value-added analytics are fragmented across hundreds of suppliers. Reusability, vertical integration, and software-defined payloads form the dominant competitive levers.

United Launch Alliance swaps expendable Delta IV Heavy for partially reusable Vulcan Centaur, Blue Origin invests in 25-flight New Glenn hardware, and Amazon builds a vertically integrated Kuiper ecosystem. Small-launch disruptors chase dedicated sub-ton cargo, though profitability hinges on higher flight cadence.

Consolidation accelerates as cash-strapped firms merge to pair manufacturing, launch, and analytics. Early adopters of debris-mitigation hardware secure regulatory goodwill and orbital slots, creating a compliance moat. Intellectual-property filings concentrate in propulsion, autonomy, and optical comms, signalling where future value will accrue.

Recent Industry Developments

• June 2025: SES obtained unconditional EU approval for its USD 3.1 billion acquisition of Intelsat, reinforcing Europe’s competitive position against LEO broadband entrants.
• April 2025: Amazon’s Project Kuiper lofted its first operational satellites, initiating deployment of a 3,232-spacecraft constellation for global broadband reach.
• March 2025: Rocket Lab announced its intent to acquire Mynaric, integrating laser-communications payloads into its Photon platform to provide turnkey constellations.
• March 2025: NASA selected SpaceX Starship under its Launch Services II contract, validating the super-heavy vehicle for government science missions.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Airbus SE
• Ball Corporation
• Boeing Defense, Space and Security
• China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. (CASC)
• Lockheed Martin Corp.
• Northrop Grumman Corp.
• Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)
• Thales Group
• Viasat, Inc.
• Intelsat SA
• Safran SA
• Honeywell International Inc.
• SES S.A.
• L3Harris Technologies, Inc.
• Rocket Lab USA, Inc.
• Blue Origin, LLC
• Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
• Maxar Technologies Inc.
• Sierra Space Corp.
• Relativity Space, Inc.
• Astroscale Holdings Inc.
• Planet Labs PBC
• OneWeb Ltd.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

Table of Contents

1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET LANDSCAPE
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.2.1 Rising Government Investments in Space Programs
4.2.2 Miniaturization Enabling Affordable Satellite Constellations
4.2.3 Growing Demand for High-Throughput Satellite Broadband
4.2.4 Commercialization of Space Tourism and In-Orbit Services
4.2.5 National-Security Focus on Resilient Space Architectures
4.2.6 Rapidly Falling Launch Costs via Reusable Vehicles
4.3 Market Restraints
4.3.1 High Up-Front CAPEX and R&D Expenditure
4.3.2 Orbital Debris, Congestion, and Space-Traffic Management Gaps
4.3.3 Regulatory Bottlenecks and ITAR Export Controls
4.3.4 Limited Launch Window and Pad Capacity
4.4 Industry Value-Chain Analysis
4.5 Regulatory Landscape
4.6 Technological Outlook
4.7 Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
4.7.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
4.7.3 Threat of New Entrants
4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
4.7.5 Competitive Rivalry
4.8 Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Market
4.9 Investment Analysis
4.10 Key Use Cases and Case Studies

5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)
5.1 By Subsystem
5.1.1 Orbit Segment
5.1.2 Launch Platform
5.1.3 Launch Vehicle
5.1.4 Payload
5.2 By End-Use
5.2.1 Civil (Government Space Agencies)
5.2.2 Commercial
5.2.3 Military and Intelligence
5.3 By Application
5.3.1 Communication
5.3.2 Earth Observation
5.3.3 Navigation and Positioning
5.3.4 Space Exploration / Science Missions
5.3.5 Space Tourism and In-Orbit Services
5.4 By Orbit Type
5.4.1 Low Earth Orbit (LEO)
5.4.2 Medium Earth Orbit (MEO)
5.4.3 Geostationary Orbit (GEO)
5.4.4 Highly Elliptical and Beyond GEO
5.5 By Geography
5.5.1 North America
5.5.1.1 United States
5.5.1.2 Canada
5.5.1.3 Mexico
5.5.2 South America
5.5.2.1 Brazil
5.5.2.2 Argentina
5.5.2.3 Rest of South America
5.5.3 Europe
5.5.3.1 United Kingdom
5.5.3.2 Germany
5.5.3.3 France
5.5.3.4 Italy
5.5.3.5 Spain
5.5.3.6 Nordics
5.5.3.7 Rest of Europe
5.5.4 Middle East
5.5.4.1 Saudi Arabia
5.5.4.2 United Arab Emirates
5.5.4.3 Turkey
5.5.4.4 Rest of Middle East
5.5.5 Africa
5.5.5.1 South Africa
5.5.5.2 Egypt
5.5.5.3 Nigeria
5.5.5.4 Rest of Africa
5.5.6 Asia-Pacific
5.5.6.1 China
5.5.6.2 India
5.5.6.3 Japan
5.5.6.4 South Korea
5.5.6.5 ASEAN
5.5.6.6 Australia
5.5.6.7 New Zealand
5.5.6.8 Rest of Asia-Pacific

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves
6.3 Market Share Analysis
6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share, Products and Services, Recent Developments)
6.4.1 Airbus SE
6.4.2 Ball Corporation
6.4.3 Boeing Defense, Space and Security
6.4.4 China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. (CASC)
6.4.5 Lockheed Martin Corp.
6.4.6 Northrop Grumman Corp.
6.4.7 Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)
6.4.8 Thales Group
6.4.9 Viasat, Inc.
6.4.10 Intelsat SA
6.4.11 Safran SA
6.4.12 Honeywell International Inc.
6.4.13 SES S.A.
6.4.14 L3Harris Technologies, Inc.
6.4.15 Rocket Lab USA, Inc.
6.4.16 Blue Origin, LLC
6.4.17 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
6.4.18 Maxar Technologies Inc.
6.4.19 Sierra Space Corp.
6.4.20 Relativity Space, Inc.
6.4.21 Astroscale Holdings Inc.
6.4.22 Planet Labs PBC
6.4.23 OneWeb Ltd.

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK
7.1 White-Space and Unmet-Need Assessment

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