オンライン食料品配送市場シェア分析、業界動向と統計、成長予測 2026-2031年

オンライン食料品配送市場の規模は2025年に7,500億米ドルと評価され、予測期間（2026～2031年）において年平均成長率（CAGR）21.68%で拡大し、2026年の9,100億米ドルから2031年には2兆4,300億米ドルに達するとMordor Intelligenceでは予測しています。この急成長を支えているのは、デジタル化の進展、配送所要時間を短縮するフルフィルメント・モデルの導入、そしてあらゆる業態で収益性を高めるデータ主導型のマーチャンダイジングです。アジア太平洋地域は、配送時間を短縮する「ダークストア（配送専用拠点）」の整備により需要の伸びを牽引する一方、北米地域は確立された物流ネットワークを強みに市場規模で主導的な地位を維持しています。

オムニチャネル小売業者がファーストパーティ・データを収益化し、クイックコマース事業者が衝動買い需要を取り込み、専業事業者がラストワンマイル配送技術を高度化させる中で、競争は激化しています。プラットフォームとFMCG（日用消費財）メーカーとの戦略的提携は、需要予測の精度や店頭在庫の確保（棚の充足率）を向上させていますが、一方で労働運動、独占禁止法関連の裁定、コールドチェーンのボトルネックといった課題が利益率を圧迫する要因ともなっています。ESGに配慮した配送車両、リテールメディア資産、AIを活用した注文管理システム（オーダ・オーケストレーション）への資金流入は続いており、マクロ経済の変動にもかかわらず、投資意欲が依然として高いことを示しています。

本レポートの主なポイント

• 配送モデル別では、2025年のオンライン食料品配送市場において「小売業者による配送（リテール・デリバリー）」が67.58%のシェアを占めました。一方、「クイックコマース」は2031年まで年平均成長率（CAGR）28.45%で推移すると予測されています。
• プラットフォーム別では、2025年にオムニチャネル小売業者が収益シェアの45.78%を占めました。また、食料品に特化したオンライン専業プラットフォーム（ピュアプレイ型）は、2026年から2031年にかけて23.95%という最も高いCAGRを記録すると予測されています。
• 製品カテゴリー別では、2025年の市場規模において、主食や調理の必需品が27.96%を占めました。生鮮食品については、2031年までCAGR 24.6%で成長が進んでいます。
• 配送タイプ別では、2025年の市場シェアにおいて「配送日時指定サービス」が59.72%を占めました。一方で、「即時配送／オンデマンド配送サービス」は、主要都市部において前年比30%を超える成長を遂げています。
• 地域別では、アジア太平洋地域がCAGR 26.95%で成長し、他のすべての地域を上回る見通しです。一方、北米は2025年時点で40.85%のシェアを占め、引き続き最大の市場となっています。

配送モデル別：サービス基準を塗り替える「クイックコマース」

2025年時点において、小売業者による配送（リテール・デリバリー）はオンライン食料品配送市場の67.58%を占め、依然として最大のシェアを維持しています。このモデルは、全国規模の配送センターと、配送密度を最適化する計画的な配送ルートを活用することで、競争の激しい販促合戦の中でも安定した利益率を確保しています。ロイヤリティプログラムとの連携や、客単価向上（バスケットビルディング）に向けた取り組みに支えられ、同セグメントの市場規模は今後も堅調に拡大すると予測されます。また、需要主導型の在庫補充システムが商品ロスを削減し、非生鮮食品の回転率を高めることで、収益性の維持に寄与しています。

一方、クイックコマースは市場規模こそ小さいものの、30分以内という短時間での配送を実現し、消費者の期待水準を塗り替えつつあります。マイクロウェアハウス（小規模倉庫）、AIを活用したピッキング、そして配送員ネットワークの拡充を原動力に、同モデルの2031年までの年平均成長率（CAGR）は28.45%に達すると予測されています。特に、高い人口密度が注文頻度を支えるアジアや欧州の主要都市において、オンライン食料品配送市場におけるシェアを急速に拡大しています。「ダークストア（配送専用拠点）」の自動化や配送のバッチ処理（複数注文のまとめ配送）による効率化が進むことで、計画配送型モデルとのコスト差が縮小しており、コンビニエンスストアからの顧客支出の移行が加速しています。

Online Grocery Delivery Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The online grocery delivery market size was valued at USD 0.75 trillion in 2025 and estimated to grow from USD 0.91 trillion in 2026 to reach USD 2.43 trillion by 2031, at a CAGR of 21.68% during the forecast period (2026-2031). The acceleration is underpinned by rising digital adoption, faster fulfilment models, and data-driven merchandising that strengthens profitability across formats. Asia-Pacific contributes the strongest incremental demand as dark-store build-outs compress delivery windows, while North America preserves scale leadership through established logistics networks. Competitive intensity is sharpening as omni-channel retailers monetize first-party data, quick commerce operators court impulse missions, and pure-play specialists refine last-mile technology. Strategic alliances between platforms and FMCG manufacturers improve forecasting accuracy and shelf availability, even as labour activism, antitrust rulings, and cold-chain bottlenecks challenge margins. Capital continues to rotate toward ESG-linked fleets, retail-media assets, and AI-based order orchestration, indicating sustained investment appetite despite macro volatility.

Key Report Takeaways

• By delivery model, retail delivery held 67.58% of the online grocery delivery market share in 2025, while quick commerce is projected to post a 28.45% CAGR through 2031.
• By platform type, omni-channel retailers commanded 45.78% revenue share in 2025; pure-play e-grocery platforms are forecast to register the highest CAGR at 23.95% over 2026-2031.
• By product category, staples and cooking essentials accounted for 27.96% of the online grocery delivery market size in 2025; fresh produce is advancing at a 24.6% CAGR to 2031.
• By delivery type, scheduled services captured 59.72% of the online grocery delivery market share in 2025, whereas instant/on-demand services are growing at more than 30% year-over-year in leading urban centres.
• Regionally, Asia-Pacific is poised for a 26.95% CAGR, outpacing all other regions, while North America remained the largest geography with 40.85% share in 2025.

Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of 2026.

Global Online Grocery Delivery Market Trends and Insights

Drivers Impact Analysis*

Hyperlocal Dark-Store Penetration in Asian Metros

Rapid dark-store roll-outs are redefining service-level benchmarks. In India, operators target 5,000–5,500 facilities by FY 2026, supporting 15- to 30-minute fulfilment that accelerates repeat purchase frequency [1]. Blinkit intends to double its network to 2,000 sites by December 2025 despite near-term EBITDA deficits. High-density clustering improves inventory turns and slashes rider kilometres per order, strengthening unit economics. The competitive race is triggering parallel investments in micro-fulfilment automation and temperature-controlled picking zones to widen assortment without sacrificing speed. Spillover effects are emerging in Gulf cities where similar demographics favour micro-fulfilment solutions.

Expansion of Real-Time Government Payment Rails

Government payment modernisation is broadening addressable demand. The United States now permits SNAP and WIC redemptions on platforms such as Instacart, supported by a USD 153.9 billion SNAP budget for FY 2025 [2]. Real-time rails reduce checkout friction, lifting basket conversion among previously cash-reliant shoppers. European regulators are likewise upgrading instant-payment directives, which will allow grocers to settle cross-border transactions in seconds. These frameworks bolster inclusion while lowering acquirer fees, indirectly funding deeper promotional activity.

Data-Sharing Partnerships with FMCG Majors in Europe

Retailers and CPG suppliers are codifying data-exchange protocols to enhance shelf planning and campaign attribution. The YouGov–RetailZoom alliance in Hungary melds attitudinal and sell-out data, unlocking sharper segmentation for promotion calendars [3]. A post-Brexit trade reset reduces customs friction, further enabling collaborative inventory pooling across the Channel. Purchasing alliances such as Intermarché-Auchan-Casino aggregate volumes and harmonise data standards, consolidating negotiating power with multinationals.

Growth of Single-Person Households in North America

Solo-resident households now exceed 38 million in the United States, catalysing smaller-basket, higher-frequency missions. Meal-kit providers report USD 11.6 billion revenue for 2024 and are introducing single-portion SKUs to cut food waste. Academic research confirms that convenience and pricing strongly influence adoption, whereas perceived performance risks deter older cohorts. Grocers respond with curated “one-pot” bundles and smaller pack sizes that travel well through delivery networks.

Restraints Impact Analysis*

Labor-Union Pushback Raising Courier Costs

Heightened labour activism is trimming operating leverage. A U.S. federal judge halted the Kroger–Albertsons merger citing wage concerns. Meanwhile, Woolworths warehouse staff in Australia demanded hourly pay of USD 38, disrupting stock flows [4]. Operators confront a 21% labour hours deficit versus 2019 levels, forcing wage hikes or automation investment that pressures contribution margins. Contract renegotiations also raise the probability of service interruptions during peak demand periods.

Cold-Chain Gaps in Tier-2 Asian Cities

Quality-consistent fresh delivery outside tier-1 metros remains difficult. Zepto’s partnership with Transport Corporation of India expands temperature-controlled capacity yet underlines systemic shortfalls. India’s cold-chain market is expected to quintuple by 2032, but many municipalities still lack high-throughput cross-docks. AI-enabled demand forecasting can improve lane utilisation, but capital intensity and power-supply instability slow roll-out, particularly for protein categories prone to spoilage.

*Our forecasts treat driver/restraint impacts as directional, not additive. The impact forecasts reflect baseline growth, mix effects, and variable interactions.

Segment Analysis

By Delivery Model: Quick Commerce Reshapes Service Norms

Retail delivery retained the largest share in 2025, controlling 67.58% of the online grocery delivery market. Its scale leverages nationwide distribution centres and scheduled routes that optimise drop densities, securing predictable margins even as competitive promotions intensify. The online grocery delivery market size for retail delivery segments is projected to advance steadily, supported by loyalty integration and basket-building initiatives. Demand-driven replenishment systems reduce shrink and enhance turnaround of non-perishables, preserving profitability.

Quick commerce, although smaller, is redefining consumer expectations with sub-30-minute fulfilment. The model posts a 28.45% forecast CAGR through 2031, propelled by micro-warehouses, AI-powered picking, and rider network densification. Its share of the online grocery delivery market is rising fastest in Asian and European capitals where population density underpins high order velocity. Efficiency gains from dark-store automation and delivery batching are narrowing cost gaps with scheduled formats, accelerating wallet share migration from convenience stores.

By Platform Type: Omni-Channel Scale vs. Pure-Play Agility

Omni-channel retailers dominated 2025 with 45.78% of market revenue, underpinned by store-based fulfilment that amortises inventory across physical and digital channels. Many deploy AI engines for demand sensing, cutting out-of-stocks and enabling precise markdown optimisation. Their extensive SKU breadth deepens shopper loyalty, which in turn supports higher attachment rates for private-label lines. The online grocery delivery market size for omni-channel operators benefits from loyalty-app penetration that locks in recurring baskets.

Pure-play online grocery platforms, unburdened by legacy real estate, are scaling rapidly at a projected 23.95% CAGR. They harness cloud micro-services and proprietary routing algorithms to refresh features faster than traditional peers. Strategic alliances with ride-hailing firms extend courier capacity during peak windows, and embedded fintech modules streamline checkout. As venture funding prioritises sustainable unit economics, many pure-plays pursue profitability through retail-media monetisation and subscription tiers offering reduced service fees and carbon-neutral delivery.

By Product Category: Fresh Produce Accelerates on Trust Gains

Staples and cooking essentials formed the core basket in 2025, securing 27.96% share and anchoring the online grocery delivery market. Their non-perishable nature permits longer fulfilment windows and higher warehouse density. Retailers capitalise on stable turns to negotiate favourable supplier terms and reduce holding costs.

Fresh produce, historically hindered by quality scepticism, is now the fastest-growing segment at a 24.6% CAGR. Improved cold-chain nodes and AI-based ripeness prediction tools enhance appearance consistency upon arrival. When fresh items arrive in optimal condition, basket value increases and churn declines. These gains lift the online grocery delivery market share for fresh categories, compelling platforms to integrate produce-specific quality guarantees and near-real-time geotagged traceability.

By Delivery Type: Scheduled Dominance with On-Demand Momentum

Scheduled services controlled 59.72% of volumes in 2025, enabling route consolidation that cuts per-order costs by double-digit percentages relative to ad-hoc dispatch. Most households align replenishment cycles with weekly routines, and subscription discounts further stabilise demand. The online grocery delivery market size attributable to scheduled drop-offs is therefore insulated from courier surge pricing.

On-demand deliveries register robust growth, driven by urban professionals valuing immediacy for forgotten items and fresh meals. Order frequency spikes during evenings and weekends, stressing rider availability, yet rising autonomous-vehicle pilots hint at cost curve inflection. Full-self-driving fleets could unlock lower variable costs and higher safety, positioning on-demand to capture incremental wallet share within the overall online grocery delivery market.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Delivery Model
  • Retail Delivery
  • Quick Commerce
  • Meal-Kit Delivery
• By Platform Type
  • Pure-Play E-grocery Platforms
  • Multi-Category Marketplaces
  • Omni-Channel Retailers
• By Product Category
  • Meat and Seafood
  • Breakfast and Dairy Products
  • Snacks and Beverages
  • Fresh Produce
  • Staples and Cooking Essentials
• By Delivery Type
  • Scheduled Deliveries
  • Instant/On-demand Deliveries
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Spain
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • SouthAmerica
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Middle East
    • Saudi Arabia
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Rest of Middle East
  • Africa
    • South Africa
    • Rest of Africa

Geography Analysis

North America retains primacy with 40.85% of global revenue in 2025. High broadband penetration, sophisticated payment infrastructure, and entrenched big-box retailers sustain leadership. Walmart alone posted USD 276 billion in U.S. grocery sales for FY 2025. The region’s online grocery delivery market size grows steadily as single-person households expand and labour activism drives partial automation of last-mile tasks. Regulatory scrutiny, exemplified by the blocked Kroger–Albertsons merger, constrains consolidation yet spurs service innovation.

Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing geography with a projected 26.95% CAGR. Urbanisation and smartphone proliferation underpin demand, while dark-store roll-outs compress delivery lead times. India exemplifies momentum with a targeted 5,500 dark stores by FY 2026. Investment flows into cold-chain upgrades and AI-based inventory placement to bridge tier-2 city gaps. Platform competition is intense, yet rising disposable incomes and optionality around payment wallets drive sustained order growth across demographics.

Europe exhibits mature yet evolving dynamics. Data-sharing ecosystems facilitate hyper-personalised offers, and the UK-EU customs reset lowers frictions for cross-border sourcing (wdhn.com). Sustainability consciousness is high, with consumers willing to pay a 9.7% premium for low-carbon goods (pwc.com). Grocery alliances pool purchasing power to negotiate energy-efficient packaging and lower inbound transport emissions. The online grocery delivery market share in fresh categories therefore inches upward as trust in quality, traceability, and ESG credentials solidifies purchasing intent.

Competitive Landscape

Competition spans legacy retailers, e-commerce majors, and regional specialists, yielding a moderately concentrated structure. Omni-channel giants leverage store estates for efficient click-and-collect and ship-from-store models, while pure-plays differentiate through user-experience velocity and AI-led curation. Recent strategic moves illustrate directional bets:

Walmart and Uber are piloting drones and autonomous vans to compress delivery costs and extend reach into lower-density suburbs. Instacart deepens platform stickiness by integrating restaurant delivery via Uber Eats, blurring boundaries between grocery and foodservice. Zepto expands temperature-controlled distribution to underpin a private-label meat portfolio targeting USD 120 million revenue by March 2026.

Retail-media monetisation is the most lucrative adjacency, generating 70-90% gross margins and creating a new battleground for data-rich incumbents. Simultaneously, ESG-linked loan structures reward emissions abatement, influencing fleet electrification timelines. Operators able to balance efficiency, societal expectations, and innovation pipelines will consolidate leadership as the online grocery delivery market scales.

Recent Industry Developments

• May 2025: Loop Capital raised Instacart’s price target to USD 58, citing upward gross transaction value revisions that strengthen acquisition attractiveness to mobility platforms.
• May 2025: Maersk’s Latin America update highlighted harvest-season bottlenecks, prompting grocery platforms to diversify third-party logistics partners for produce reliability.
• April 2025: Flipkart limited quick-commerce expansion to eight metros to curb a USD 40 million monthly cash burn, tightening capital allocation discipline.
• April 2025: Walmart and Uber unveiled joint drone and AV pilots, signalling commitment to automation as a hedge against rising labour costs.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Walmart Inc.
• Amazon.com Inc.
• Uber Technologies Inc. (Uber Eats)
• Just Eat Takeaway.com N.V.
• Instacart
• Delivery Hero SE
• The Kroger Co.
• Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V.
• Carrefour S.A.
• Ocado Group plc
• Meituan
• JD.com Inc.
• Getir Perakende Lojistik A.Ş.
• GoBrands Inc.
• Boxed Inc.
• Coles Group Limited
• Woolworths Group Limited
• Supermarket Grocery Supplies Pvt Ltd.
• FreshDirect LLC
• Costco Wholesale Corporation
• HelloFresh SE
• DoorDash Inc.
• Flipkart Internet Pvt Ltd.
• Reliance Retail Ltd.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

Table of Contents

1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET LANDSCAPE
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.2.1 Hyperlocal Dark-Store Penetration in Asian Metros
4.2.2 Expansion of Real-Time Government Payment Rails
4.2.3 Data-Sharing Partnerships with FMCG Majors in Europe
4.2.4 Growth of Single-Person Households in North America
4.2.5 Retail-Media Monetization as Profit Catalyst
4.2.6 ESG-Linked Capital for Carbon-Neutral Last-Mile
4.3 Market Restraints
4.3.1 Labor-Union Pushback Raising Courier Costs
4.3.2 Cold-Chain Gaps in Tier-2 Asian Cities
4.3.3 Margin Pressure and Antitrust Scrutiny
4.3.4 Produce-Quality Trust Deficit in Latin America
4.4 Value Chain Analysis
4.5 Regulatory or Technological Outlook
4.6 Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
4.6.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.6.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
4.6.3 Threat of New Entrants
4.6.4 Threat of Substitutes
4.6.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
4.7 Assessment of Impact of Macroeconomic Trends
4.8 Investment Analysis

5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUES)
5.1 By Delivery Model
5.1.1 Retail Delivery
5.1.2 Quick Commerce
5.1.3 Meal-Kit Delivery
5.2 By Platform Type
5.2.1 Pure-Play E-grocery Platforms
5.2.2 Multi-Category Marketplaces
5.2.3 Omni-Channel Retailers
5.3 By Product Category
5.3.1 Meat and Seafood
5.3.2 Breakfast and Dairy Products
5.3.3 Snacks and Beverages

5.3.4 Fresh Produce
5.3.5 Staples and Cooking Essentials
5.4 By Delivery Type
5.4.1 Scheduled Deliveries
5.4.2 Instant/On-demand Deliveries
5.5 By Geography
5.5.1 North America
5.5.1.1 United States
5.5.1.2 Canada
5.5.1.3 Mexico
5.5.2 Europe
5.5.2.1 Germany
5.5.2.2 United Kingdom
5.5.2.3 France
5.5.2.4 Spain
5.5.2.5 Rest of Europe
5.5.3 Asia-Pacific
5.5.3.1 China
5.5.3.2 India
5.5.3.3 Japan
5.5.3.4 South Korea
5.5.3.5 Rest of Asia-Pacific
5.5.4 SouthAmerica
5.5.4.1 Brazil
5.5.4.2 Argentina
5.5.4.3 Rest of South America
5.5.5 Middle East
5.5.5.1 Saudi Arabia
5.5.5.2 United Arab Emirates
5.5.5.3 Rest of Middle East
5.5.6 Africa
5.5.6.1 South Africa
5.5.6.2 Rest of Africa

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves
6.3 Market Share Analysis
6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global-level Overview, Market-level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
6.4.1 Walmart Inc.
6.4.2 Amazon.com Inc.
6.4.3 Uber Technologies Inc. (Uber Eats)
6.4.4 Just Eat Takeaway.com N.V.
6.4.5 Instacart
6.4.6 Delivery Hero SE
6.4.7 The Kroger Co.
6.4.8 Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V.
6.4.9 Carrefour S.A.
6.4.10 Ocado Group plc
6.4.11 Meituan
6.4.12 JD.com Inc.
6.4.13 Getir Perakende Lojistik A.Ş.
6.4.14 GoBrands Inc.
6.4.15 Boxed Inc.
6.4.16 Coles Group Limited
6.4.17 Woolworths Group Limited
6.4.18 Supermarket Grocery Supplies Pvt Ltd.
6.4.19 FreshDirect LLC
6.4.20 Costco Wholesale Corporation
6.4.21 HelloFresh SE
6.4.22 DoorDash Inc.
6.4.23 Flipkart Internet Pvt Ltd.
6.4.24 Reliance Retail Ltd.

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK
7.1 White-Space and Unmet-Need Assessment

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