オフグリッド太陽光発電市場シェア分析、業界動向と統計、成長予測 2026-2031年

オフグリッド太陽光発電市場の設置容量規模は、2025年の12.75ギガワットから2026年には14.68ギガワットに拡大し、2026年から2031年にかけて年平均成長率（CAGR）22.21%で成長し、2031年には40.02ギガワットに達するとMordor Intelligenceでは予測しています。

この急成長を支える3つの構造的変化があります。リチウムイオン電池パックの価格は、前年比8%の下落を経て2025年には平均108米ドル/kWhに達し、定置型蓄電システムは70米ドル/kWhに達しました。また、ペロブスカイト・シリコンタンデムモジュールは、27.3%の効率でパイロット生産段階に入りました。[1] 開発資金は、これらの技術進歩をさらに加速させています。ミッション300は、17のアフリカ諸国が2030年までに3億人を電化することを約束し、民間資本のリスクを軽減するミニグリッド入札をまとめています。[2]同時に、北京が2026年4月に9％の輸出VAT還付を撤廃し、銀価格が記録的な高騰を見せたことでモジュールの利益率が縮小し、太陽光発電の規模が拡大するにつれて、歴史的な価格下落が緩和される可能性が示唆された。[3] 需要面では、サハラ以南アフリカと南アジアの5万以上のタワーサイトでディーゼル発電機を置き換える通信事業者の事例は、わずか3年前には経済的に成り立たなかったであろう数日間の自律型ソリューションを商業ユーザーが推進している様子を示している。

主要レポートの要点

• 技術別に見ると、太陽光発電は2025年においても設置容量の100%のシェアを維持し、全体の年平均成長率（CAGR）22.21%とほぼ同水準で推移すると予測されています。
• エンドユーザー別に見ると、住宅用システムが2025年のオフグリッド太陽光発電市場シェアの52.9%を占め、市場を牽引しました。商業・産業用設備は2031年まで年平均成長率26.8%で拡大すると予測されており、これはすべてのエンドユーザーの中で最も高い成長率です。
• 地域別に見ると、アジア太平洋地域は2025年に59.87%の容量を占め、中東・アフリカ地域は2031年まで年平均成長率26.3%で成長すると予測されています。
• Trina Solarは2024年に両面受光型モジュールの出荷増加分の30%を獲得し、中国の上位4社の中で技術別シェアで最大のシェアを記録しました。

Off-Grid Solar Energy Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The Off-Grid Solar Energy Market size in terms of installed base is expected to grow from 12.75 gigawatt in 2025 to 14.68 gigawatt in 2026 and is forecast to reach 40.02 gigawatt by 2031 at 22.21% CAGR over 2026-2031.

Three structural shifts underpin this steep curve: lithium-ion battery packs averaged USD 108 per kWh in 2025 after an 8% annual drop, stationary storage systems hit USD 70 per kWh, and perovskite–silicon tandem modules moved into pilot production at 27.3% efficiency.[1] Development finance is amplifying these technology gains. Mission 300 has committed 17 African nations to electrifying 300 million people by 2030, bundling mini-grid tenders that de-risk private capital.[2] At the same time, Beijing’s April 2026 removal of the 9% export VAT rebate and record silver prices narrowed module margins, signaling that historic price deflation may ease just as volumes scale PV.[3] On the demand side, telecom operators replacing diesel gensets at more than 50,000 tower sites across Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia illustrate how commercial users are driving multi-day autonomy solutions that would have been uneconomic even three years ago.

Key Report Takeaways

• By technology, solar photovoltaic retained 100% share of installed capacity in 2025 and is expected to move in lockstep with the overall 22.21% CAGR.
• By end-user, residential systems led with 52.9% of the off-grid solar energy market share in 2025. Commercial and industrial installations are forecast to expand at a 26.8% CAGR to 2031, the fastest among all end-users.
• By geography, Asia-Pacific commanded 59.87% capacity in 2025, while the Middle East and Africa region is projected to post a 26.3% CAGR through 2031.
• Trina Solar captured 30% of incremental bifacial module shipments in 2024, the largest technology-specific share reported among the top four Chinese manufacturers.

Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of 2026.

Global Off-Grid Solar Energy Market Trends and Insights

Falling PV Module Prices & Efficiency Gains

Polysilicon oversupply held China FOB module prices near USD 0.12 per watt in 1H 2026, yet costs stabilized when the 9% export VAT rebate ended, and high silver prices added 3–4% to cell inputs PV. Tandem innovation partly offsets these headwinds: Oxford PV started 27.3% modules in May 2024 and targets 7.5 GW capacity by 2029, while LONGi’s lab record reached 33.9% in April 2024.[4] Commercial modules topping 26% efficiency could enter the off-grid solar energy market by 2027 and lower balance-of-system spending up to 20%. Bifacial designs such as LONGi’s Hi-MO 9 already secure 5–30% extra yield on high-albedo sites, and thin-film cadmium-telluride remains niche because tellurium scarcity caps global output below 10 GW. Yet perovskite durability and lead content are unresolved, with possible IEC 61215 rule changes creating 12–18 months of certification lag.

Rising Rural Electrification Targets

Mission 300 mobilized USD 1.85 billion for Nigeria’s DARES program alone, bundling 1,350 mini-grids to serve 17.5 million people. India’s PM-KUSUM set a 30.8 GW target but reached only 2.8 GW by mid-2024 because 40–50% farmer co-payments stalled uptake in low-credit states. The International Solar Alliance calculates 59% of the 396 million unelectrified people are better served by mini-grids, yet the financing gap is forty-nine times current capital flows. Indonesia’s 2,500 unelectrified villages illustrate last-mile risk: PLN’s USD 0.15 per kWh tariff cap drags IRRs below 8%, deterring private bidders without sovereign backing.

Declining Li-ion Battery Cost Curve

Average pack prices slid to USD 108 per kWh in 2025, and stationary LFP systems fell to USD 70 per kWh, cutting a 10 kWh three-day-autonomy set to USD 700 for cells alone. China’s domestic packs cleared at USD 84 per kWh, 44–56% below North American and European equivalents, accentuating regional cost asymmetry. Tesla’s Lathrop line ramped to 40 GWh, yet its Powerwall 3 pursues grid-tied homes, leaving sub-5 kWh solar-home demand to Chinese makers. CATL’s sodium-ion launch at USD 60 per kWh broadens chemistries for mini-grids where energy density is secondary.

Pay-Go Fintech Integration Boosts Affordability

Mobile-money ecosystems financed 50 million people by 2025, but default rates climbed from 18% in 2021 to 30% in 2023 as irregular income and misunderstood terms surfaced. M-KOPA extended USD 1.6 billion in credit to 4.8 million Kenyans, while d.light securitized USD 842 million across five tranches, using multi-currency structures that hedge forex swings yet add 150–200 bps to costs. Only 22% of energy-needy households can meet Tier 1 system payments without subsidy, underscoring the poverty premium.

High Upfront CAPEX for Large Systems

Telecom hybrid systems need USD 20,000–60,000, and Nigerian towers still face >12% local-currency debt unless risk guarantees cut rates by 300–400 bps. In India, PM-KUSUM Component A obliges 40–50% farmer co-funding; states with <30% credit penetration force reliance on informal 18–24% loans that erode project IRRs. Mini-grid developers across Nigeria secured financial close on only 15% of a USD 1.6 billion pipeline by early 2025 because lenders seek 25% equity IRRs.

Intermittent Policy Support / Subsidy Cuts

Brazil’s 2023 net-metering rule cut export credits to 70%, slashing distributed additions 40% in 2024. Argentina’s 300% peso slide between 2023 and 2025 stalled RenovAr, while India’s DISCOM delays left PM-KUSUM underfunded at just 75% of annual allocations. Kenya reinstated a 16% VAT on solar products in 2024, lifting prices 12–15% and dragging PAYGo sales by one-fifth in 1H 2025.

*Our forecasts treat driver/restraint impacts as directional, not additive. The impact forecasts reflect baseline growth, mix effects, and variable interactions.

Segment Analysis

By Technology: Photovoltaics Anchor Distributed Supply

Solar PV accounted for 100% of capacity in 2025, mirroring the overall off-grid solar energy market size trajectory. Concentrated solar power’s 10 MW minimum scale and molten-salt storage cost of USD 50–80 per kWh remain uneconomic for the 50 kW–5 MW band, where the off-grid solar energy market thrives. Over the forecast horizon, perovskite-silicon tandems entering bankability by 2027 could pare total installed cost 20–30%, compressing payback periods across mini-grids. Bifacial modules already raise yield 5–30% and expand the off-grid solar energy market share of bifacial shipments, especially in high-albedo Sahel zones. However, lead-related certification hurdles may delay perovskite adoption, tempering near-term upside.

Continuous LFP price declines align with module efficiency gains, keeping the off-grid solar energy market on its steep learning curve. With thin-film cadmium-telluride capped by tellurium supply, crystalline and tandem PV will continue to dominate volume. Edge-of-grid microinverters offering grid-forming capability, launched by Enphase in 2024, will likely remain a grid-connected feature rather than an off-grid standard because unit pricing exceeds USD 0.25 per watt and connectivity requirements strain rural networks.

By End-User: C&I Sites Accelerate on Diesel Displacement

Residential pay-go solutions held 52.9% of 2025 volume but face rising default risk, whereas C&I demand is poised to capture a growing off-grid solar energy market share through 2031. Telecom operators achieve 99% uptime and USD 1.5 million annual diesel savings at Nigerian pilot sites, validating 3–5 year paybacks without subsidy. Cold-chain and agribusiness users join the trend; a 6 MW Australian orchard system with 4.5 MWh storage erased 35% in demand charges.

C&I projects also secure cheaper debt, 10–12% compared with the 15–20% typical for PAYGo portfolios, because cash-flow visibility is stronger, reducing weighted average cost of capital by 300–500 bps. Conversely, saturation in early-adopter households across Kenya and Tanzania slows new unit sales, pushing PAYGo platforms toward appliance finance to lift lifetime customer value. These dynamics will narrow the residential share of the off-grid solar energy market size after 2028 while C&I expands at a high-teens clip.

Complete Report Scope:

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific dominated the off-grid solar energy market with 59.87% capacity in 2025. Yet India’s PM-KUSUM realized only 9% of its 30.8 GW goal by mid-2024, indicating bureaucratic lag amid abundant potential. Indonesia’s 2,500 unelectrified villages highlight IRR compression to <8% without sovereign guarantees, constraining private build-out. The Philippines targets 100% household electrification by 2027, focusing on mini-grids where extension costs exceed USD 10,000 per km, but land-title disputes extend lead times past 18 months.

The Middle East and Africa region is forecast to have a 26.3% CAGR, faster than the global off-grid solar energy market. Nigeria’s DARES taps USD 1.85 billion to roll out 1,350 mini-grids, some grid-interactive for ancillary-service revenue. Kenyan PAYGo leaders secured USD 156 million in 2025 for 1 million systems, while Gulf investors such as Amea Power financed a 50 MW Ivory Coast plant coming online in 2027. Forex swings remain the key brake; a 68% naira drop in 2024 forced d.light to hedge via multi-currency notes, adding 150–200 bps to issuance spreads.

North America, Europe, and South America combined sit below 15% of the off-grid solar energy market size due to near-universal grid reach. Canada devoted CAD 300 million to replace diesel in 292 remote First Nations communities, but Arctic latitude cuts solar capacity factors to 8–12%, slowing uptake. Brazil’s 2023 net-metering revision shrank distributed growth 40% in 2024, while Argentina’s peso devaluation froze its RenovAr pipeline. Europe’s limited demand centers on island or highland tourism assets where diesel prices supply the arbitrage.

Competitive Landscape

Top Companies in Off-Grid Solar Energy Market

Two clusters shape competitive intensity. Chinese module makers LONGi, Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, and JA Solar jointly control 85% of global PV output, anchoring hardware supply for the off-grid solar energy market. LONGi posted a CNY 10.4 billion 2024 net loss and cut 30% of staff amid margin squeeze, whereas Trina grew profit to CNY 5.14 billion by leaning into premium bifacial modules. On the downstream side, PAYGo specialists such as d.light, M-KOPA, Sun King, Husk Power, and the newly merged Ignite Power–ENGIE Energy Access entity compete on distribution footprint and fintech underwriting. Ignite’s USD 200 million buyout of ENGIE Energy Access in September 2025 vaulted the combined base to 15 million customers and unlocked 200 bps funding cost savings via scale.

Mini-grid developers like Renewvia and Powerhive exploit concessional DFI debt at 6–8%, underpricing commercial peers by 400–600 bps. Technology suppliers Huawei FusionSolar and SMA Solar push AI-based predictive O&M that trims downtime 20–30%, yet low rural connectivity limits penetration below 10% in Africa. White-space growth areas include telecom tower retrofits, cold-chain logistics, and mini-grid-to-grid integration for ancillary revenues, each requiring bundled tender structures to clear upfront funding hurdles.

Recent Industry Developments

• February 2026: Renewvia secured USD 10 million Series B from Claritas Capital to build 50 mini-grids in Kenya and Nigeria.
• September 2025: Ignite Power acquired ENGIE Energy Access for USD 200 million, creating a 15-million-customer platform.
• July 2025: d.light expanded securitization by USD 300 million, totaling USD 842 million across five tranches.
• July 2025: Sun King securitized USD 156 million for 1 million East African systems.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• ABB Ltd.
• Schneider Electric SE
• Canadian Solar Inc.
• JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd.
• SunPower Corporation
• Trina Solar Ltd.
• LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. Ltd.
• JA Solar Technology Co. Ltd.
• Sharp Corporation
• Tesla Inc.
• First Solar Inc.
• Sunrun Inc.
• D.Light Design Inc.
• Bboxx Ltd.
• ENGIE Energy Access
• Zola Electric
• SMA Solar Technology AG
• Enphase Energy Inc.
• Fronius International GmbH
• Powerhive Inc.
• Greenlight Planet Inc.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

Table of Contents

1 Introduction
1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.2.1 Falling PV module prices & efficiency gains
4.2.2 Rising rural electrification targets
4.2.3 Declining Li-ion battery cost curve
4.2.4 Pay-Go fintech integration boosts affordability
4.2.5 ESG-linked debt lowering cost of capital
4.2.6 Utility mini-grid tender bundling
4.3 Market Restraints
4.3.1 High upfront CAPEX for large systems
4.3.2 Intermittent policy support/subsidy cuts
4.3.3 Saturation of early adopter households
4.3.4 Used-panel dumping undermining quality trust
4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
4.5 Regulatory Landscape & Government Policies
4.6 Technological Outlook (next-gen perovskite, AI-based O&M)
4.7 Porter’s Five Forces
4.7.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
4.7.3 Threat of New Entrants
4.7.4 Threat of Substitute Products & Services
4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts
5.1 By Technology
5.1.1 Solar Photovoltaic (PV)
5.1.2 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
5.2 By End-User
5.2.1 Utility-Scale
5.2.2 Commercial and Industrial (C&I)
5.2.3 Residential
5.3 By Component (Qualitative Analysis)
5.3.1 Solar Modules/Panels
5.3.2 Inverters (String, Central, Micro)
5.3.3 Mounting and Tracking Systems
5.3.4 Balance-of-System and Electricals
5.3.5 Energy Storage and Hybrid Integration
5.4 By Geography
5.4.1 North America
5.4.1.1 United States
5.4.1.2 Canada
5.4.1.3 Mexico
5.4.2 Europe
5.4.2.1 United Kingdom
5.4.2.2 Germany
5.4.2.3 France
5.4.2.4 Spain
5.4.2.5 Nordic Countries
5.4.2.6 Russia
5.4.2.7 Rest of Europe
5.4.3 Asia-Pacific
5.4.3.1 China
5.4.3.2 India
5.4.3.3 Japan
5.4.3.4 South Korea
5.4.3.5 Malaysia
5.4.3.6 Thailand
5.4.3.7 Indonesia
5.4.3.8 Vietnam
5.4.3.9 Australia
5.4.3.10 Rest of Asia-Pacific
5.4.4 South America
5.4.4.1 Brazil
5.4.4.2 Argentina
5.4.4.3 Colombia
5.4.4.4 Rest of South America
5.4.5 Middle East and Africa
5.4.5.1 United Arab Emirates
5.4.5.2 Saudi Arabia
5.4.5.3 South Africa
5.4.5.4 Egypt
5.4.5.5 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
6.4.1 ABB Ltd.
6.4.2 Schneider Electric SE
6.4.3 Canadian Solar Inc.
6.4.4 JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd.
6.4.5 SunPower Corporation
6.4.6 Trina Solar Ltd.
6.4.7 LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. Ltd.
6.4.8 JA Solar Technology Co. Ltd.
6.4.9 Sharp Corporation
6.4.10 Tesla Inc.
6.4.11 First Solar Inc.
6.4.12 Sunrun Inc.
6.4.13 D.Light Design Inc.
6.4.14 Bboxx Ltd.
6.4.15 ENGIE Energy Access
6.4.16 Zola Electric
6.4.17 SMA Solar Technology AG
6.4.18 Enphase Energy Inc.
6.4.19 Fronius International GmbH
6.4.20 Powerhive Inc.
6.4.21 Greenlight Planet Inc.

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook
7.1 White-space & Unmet-Need Assessment

---

---