クリーン水素市場シェア分析、業界動向と統計、成長予測 2026-2031年

クリーン水素市場の生産能力規模は、2025年の225万トンから2026年には450万トンに拡大し、2031年には1375万トンに成長し、2026年から2031年にかけての年平均成長率（CAGR）は25.03%に達するとMordor Intelligenceでは予測しています。

電解槽工場の急速な規模拡大、手厚い生産税額控除、そして義務的なグリーン調達制度により、水素の供給コストは化石燃料由来の水素と同等に低下しており、クリーン水素市場は急速な成長軌道に乗っています。2025年時点ではブルー水素がコスト面で優位性を維持していますが、欧州では1キロワットあたり2457米ドル、中国サプライヤーでは500米ドルを下回る電解槽価格の下落により、再生可能エネルギーを利用した電解槽へのプロジェクトパイプラインのシフトが進んでいます。大手産業ガス企業は長期契約を確保するためにパイプライン網の用途変更を進めており、新規参入企業は工期短縮につながるモジュール式・コンテナ式電解槽の受注獲得を目指しています。同時に、各国政府はギガワット級プロジェクトに総額200億ドルを超える補助金を投入し、投資適格債の条件で民間債務を大量に調達しています。

レポートの要点

• 2025年時点で、クリーン水素市場におけるブルー水素のシェアは68.5%を占める一方、グリーン水素は2031年まで年平均成長率（CAGR）34.6%で最も速い成長が見込まれる。
• アルカリ電解槽は2025年時点でクリーン水素市場の58.9%を占める一方、PEM電解槽は2026年から2031年にかけて年平均成長率32.3%で最も高い成長が見込まれる。
• 圧縮ガス供給は2025年時点でクリーン水素市場の48.1%を占める一方、液体水素は2031年まで年平均成長率30.9%で成長すると予測される。
• 産業用途は2025年時点でクリーン水素市場の53.8%を占める。輸送需要は2031年まで年平均成長率（CAGR）35.7%で最も急速に拡大する見込みです。
• アジア太平洋地域は2025年の輸送量の43.7%を占め、2026年から2031年にかけて地域別CAGR27.4%と最も高い成長率を記録すると予測されています。

用途別：輸送部門が急増、産業部門が牽引

産業部門は2025年時点で53.8%のシェアを占め、アンモニアと鉄鋼の脱炭素化が牽引役となった。アルセロールミッタルのセスタオ工場やH2グリーンスチールのボーデン工場といった直接還元鉄プラントは、それぞれ年間8万トン以上の水素を必要とし、ベースロード電力の供給を支えている。発電部門はシェアは小さいものの、バッテリーとの競争に直面している。しかし、100%水素を燃料とするガスタービンは、電力系統安定化のための資産として商業試験段階に入っています。

輸送部門の需要はニッチな規模ながら、大型トラック、鉄道、そして初期段階の船舶輸送に牽引され、年平均成長率（CAGR）35.7%で成長を牽引している。現代自動車は2025年末までに世界中で1,800台以上の燃料電池トラックを納入し、アルストムのコラディアiLintなどの鉄道車両は、架線電化コストが1キロメートルあたり1,000万米ドルを超える地域で競争力を発揮している。航空輸送と長距離海運は容積密度制限のため依然として実証段階にあるが、ゼロエミッション港湾や空港に対する政策的インセンティブによって、2030年以降は導入が加速する可能性がある。その頃には、モビリティ分野におけるクリーン水素の市場シェアは10%台前半に達し、産業の中核分野以外にも収益源が多様化するでしょう。

Clean Hydrogen Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The Clean Hydrogen Market size in terms of production capacity is expected to grow from 2.25 MTPA in 2025 to 4.5 MTPA in 2026 and is forecast to reach 13.75 MTPA by 2031 at 25.03% CAGR over 2026-2031.

Rapid scale-up of electrolyzer factories, generous production tax credits, and mandatory green-procurement schemes are lowering the delivered cost of hydrogen toward fossil parity, placing the clean hydrogen market on an accelerated growth curve. Blue hydrogen retained cost leadership in 2025, yet falling electrolyzer prices below USD 2457 per kilowatt in Europe and below USD 500 per kilowatt from Chinese suppliers are shifting project pipelines toward renewable-powered electrolysis. Industrial gas majors are repurposing pipeline grids to lock in long-term contracts, while new entrants chase modular, containerized electrolyzer orders that shorten construction schedules. At the same time, governments are channeling more than USD 20 billion in combined subsidies into gigawatt-scale projects, crowding in private debt at investment-grade terms.

Key Report Takeaways

• Blue hydrogen commanded 68.5% of the clean hydrogen market share in 2025, whereas green hydrogen is forecast to grow the fastest at a 34.6% CAGR to 2031.
• Alkaline electrolyzers held 58.9% of the clean hydrogen market size in 2025; the PEM segment is projected to post the highest CAGR at 32.3% between 2026 and 2031.
• Compressed gas distribution captured 48.1% of the clean hydrogen market share in 2025, while liquid hydrogen is expected to advance at a 30.9% CAGR through 2031.
• Industrial uses represented 53.8% of the clean hydrogen market size in 2025; transportation demand will expand the quickest at 35.7% CAGR to 2031.
• Asia-Pacific accounted for 43.7% of the 2025 volume, and the region is projected to record the highest regional CAGR at 27.4% over 2026-2031.

Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.

Global Clean Hydrogen Market Trends and Insights

Soaring electrolyzer manufacturing over-capacity drives price collapse post-2026

Global nameplate electrolyzer capacity hit 61-63 GW per year in 2025, but only 2.15 GW was operating, creating an oversupply that forced European alkaline prices down to USD 2,407 per kilowatt and PEM to USD 2,547per kilowatt.[1] Chinese vendors control more than half of the installed factory capacity and are exporting modules below cost to maintain their share, impairing Western manufacturers’ margins. As hardware deflates, the unsubsidized levelized cost of green hydrogen is projected to fall toward USD 1.50–2.50 per kilogram in high-solar regions by 2030, overtaking blue hydrogen ranges burdened by escalating carbon-capture charges. The price war is accelerating final-investment decisions across the Middle East and India, two locations with abundant low-priced renewable electricity. However, plummeting module prices are squeezing working-capital lines for smaller OEMs, raising the prospect of sector consolidation over the next two years.

IRA-style production tax credits replicated in EU, India, Brazil

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act’s 45V credit of up to USD 3 per kilogram for low-carbon hydrogen has become a global benchmark that Europe’s Hydrogen Bank, India’s SIGHT scheme, and Brazil’s pending incentive framework now mirror.[2] These subsidies establish predictable revenue floors, permitting developers to secure non-recourse debt at lower spreads. India alone earmarked USD 2.4 billion for electrolysis manufacturing and production incentives, triggering a 1 MTPA green-ammonia FID by AM Green.[3] Yet an accelerated sunset clause in the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, which requires U.S. projects to start construction before January 1, 2028, prompted cancellations exceeding 4.9 MTPA in 2025, underscoring persistent policy risk.[4]

Rise of green-premium procurement mandates by steel and ammonia buyers

European policymakers are weighing rules that oblige 25% low-carbon steel content from 2029 onward, forcing mills to lock in renewable hydrogen contracts well before spot markets mature. ArcelorMittal’s USD 1.16 billion Sestao DRI-EAF plant and H2 Green Steel’s 5 MTPA Boden complex embody this transition, each demanding up to 250,000 tonnes of hydrogen annually. Long-term offtake deals, such as Reliance-Samsung Engineering’s USD 3 billion, 15-year green ammonia contract, shift price exposure from producers to buyers. India’s Green Steel Taxonomy, defining compliant output at < 2.2 tCO₂/t-steel, provides a domestic demand pull.

Development of H₂ pipeline corridors in EU, U.S. Gulf and Middle East

The South2 Corridor, a 3,300 km network linking North Africa to Germany with 65% repurposed gas lines, targets an early-2030s start-up and 4 MTPA capacity. Europe’s Hydrogen Backbone envisages 39,700 km by 2040, pushing transport tariffs down to USD 0.13–0.24 per kg-km versus USD 0.52–0.75 for new pipelines. In the U.S., the HyVelocity Hub secured USD 1.2 billion in DOE grants to integrate more than 1,000 miles of legacy hydrogen lines on the Gulf Coast. Pipeline delivery can slash end-user costs by up to 50% beyond 200 km, anchoring new industrial clusters.

2030-onwards renewable-power curtailment penalties (grid fees)

Germany curtailed 8.2 TWh of green power in 2024 and is introducing time-of-use tariffs that charge electrolyzers USD 5.8-17.4/MWh during surplus periods, undercutting assumptions of zero-cost energy. Similar dynamic-fee pilots are underway in Spain and Denmark. Because alkaline electrolyzers need 5-15 minutes to ramp, they cannot absorb volatility as quickly as lithium-ion storage, prompting regulators to favor batteries for grid balancing. EU rules also force hourly matching between renewable output and hydrogen production, limiting developers’ ability to arbitrage cheap imports across bidding zones. From 2030, grid penalties could add USD 0.20-0.50/kg to hydrogen costs, eroding competitiveness versus blue hydrogen in gas-rich regions.

CCS cost inflation undermines blue-H₂ competitiveness

Carbon-capture costs have climbed from USD 50-100/tCO₂ in 2025 toward an expected USD 80-150/tCO₂ by 2030 as equipment, permitting, and well-drilling expenses surge. CF Industries’ USD 4 billion Blue Point ammonia project illustrates the expense—CCS accounts for up to 40% of the capital stack. Lengthy approval cycles for U.S. Class VI wells and competition for pore space delay project timelines. As sequestration costs rise, blue hydrogen’s delivered price converges with subsidy-free green hydrogen in sunny geographies, narrowing the rationale for plants relying solely on reforming plus capture.

*Our forecasts treat driver/restraint impacts as directional, not additive. The impact forecasts reflect baseline growth, mix effects, and variable interactions.

Segment Analysis

By Production Method: Policy Arbitrage Favors Green Over Blue

Blue hydrogen retained 68.5% of the clean hydrogen market share in 2025, underscoring the early-mover advantage of reforming natural gas paired with carbon capture. Yet the green pathway is on a faster cadence, expanding at 34.6% CAGR through 2031 as falling electrolyzer costs compress the delivered price gap to less than USD 0.20 per kilogram in high-solar regions. That swing reduces the blue premium that once placed steam-reforming projects ahead on project finance models, especially where government incentives for captured carbon have begun to taper. Developers, therefore, continue to break ground on gigawatt-scale electrolysis clusters, such as the 219,000-tonne-per-year NEOM complex, which will anchor large export volumes into Asia.

From 2026 onward, the clean hydrogen market size attached to green projects eclipses blue in announced capacity, even though blue still dominates volumes in operation. CCS cost escalation, running from USD 50-100 per tonne in 2025 toward USD 80-150 per tonne by 2030, erodes blue’s price edge, while renewable energy additions, land-leasing reforms, and tax credits speed up electrolysis pipelines. Turquoise hydrogen and biomass gasification has low share of the clean hydrogen market size because of unproven carbon monetization and logistics barriers. Unless CCS price curves flatten, policy risk is expected to dilute further blue project pipelines, opening room for green to become the reference pathway in procurement tenders.

By Electrolyzer Technology: Alkaline Incumbency Faces PEM Disruption

Alkaline systems captured 58.9% of the clean hydrogen market size in 2025, benefiting from lower capital intensity and decades of deployment in the chlor-alkali industry. European module quotations slipped below USD 2,436 per kilowatt during 2025 as Chinese suppliers triggered a price war, widening their reach in export tenders. The PEM segment, however, is closing the gap, helped by iridium-loading reductions from 2-3 grams per kilowatt in 2020 to as low as 0.3-0.5 grams per kilowatt in 2025, cutting catalyst bills by more than 70%. Faster ramp rates and partial-load flexibility, reaching 10% of nameplate capacity in sub-second response, make PEM the preferred option for co-located wind-solar hybrids.

Solid-oxide electrolysis commands a smaller market share, yet pilot runs have logged 72% electrical efficiency and aim for stack-level efficiencies above 85% once industrial waste heat is harvested. That translates into a potential USD 0.30-0.80 per kilogram saving in markets where power costs exceed USD 40 per megawatt-hour, positioning SOEC for steel and ammonia complexes. Meanwhile, anion-exchange membrane prototypes promise PEM-like dynamics without noble metals, but lifetime validation past 40,000 hours is still lacking. Overall, the technology mix is tilting from cost-driven alkaline dominance toward a more balanced profile in which PEM and, later, SOEC carve out applications tied to flexible renewables and high-grade heat integration.

By Delivery Form: Compressed Gas Dominance Yields to Liquid & Ammonia Carriers

Compressed gas held 48.1% of 2025 volumes because tube-trailer logistics fit industrial clusters that sit within a few hundred kilometers of production sites. Even so, the clean hydrogen market size tied to liquid hydrogen is forecast to grow at 30.9% CAGR through 2031 as intercontinental trade takes shape. Japan’s 50,000-cubic-meter Ogishima terminal and Kawasaki’s 40,000-cubic-meter carrier, both under construction, will push delivered costs to below USD 2.32 per kilogram by the mid-2030s, unlocking Australia-to-Asia and Middle-East-to-Asia corridors.

Ammonia, with established maritime fleets and cracking technology, already accounts for a significant share of traded hydrogen equivalents. It stays attractive for fertilizer and marine fuel applications, even though synthesis adds an energy penalty. Liquid organic carriers, meanwhile, remain a niche share because the hydrogenation-dehydrogenation loop absorbs 30-40% of the original energy content. Over longer distances, pipeline delivery will still beat both liquid options on cost, provided repurposed natural-gas rights-of-way succeed in lowering tariff structures.

By Application: Transportation surges while industrial leads

Industrial segments dominated at 53.8% share in 2025, driven by ammonia and steel decarbonization. Direct-reduced iron plants such as ArcelorMittal’s Sestao and H2 Green Steel’s Boden facilities each need upward of 80,000 tonnes per year, anchoring baseload offtake. Power generation used a smaller share of volumes and faces battery competition, but gas turbines that burn 100% hydrogen are entering commercial trials as grid stability assets.

Transportation demand stands niche volumes but leads growth at 35.7% CAGR, propelled by heavy-duty trucking, rail, and early marine deployments. Hyundai logged more than 1,800 fuel-cell trucks worldwide by end-2025, and rail units such as Alstom’s Coradia iLint have proven competitive where catenary electrification costs exceed USD 10 million per kilometer. Aviation and long-haul shipping remain in demonstration because of volumetric density limits, yet policy incentives for zero-emission ports and airports could accelerate adoption after 2030. By then, the clean hydrogen market share for mobility may climb into low-double-digit territory, diversifying revenues beyond the industrial core.

Complete Report Scope:

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific led with 43.7% of 2025 volumes and should post the highest regional CAGR at 27.4% through 2031. China alone commissioned 25 of the 59 global projects that came online in 2025, including Sinopec’s 20,000-tonne-per-year Kuqa electrolyzer complex. India’s National Green Hydrogen Mission, backed by USD 2.05 billion in incentives, has seeded more than 1 MTPA of committed capacity across ammonia and mobility pilots. Japan is building import infrastructure that targets 3 MTPA by 2030 and 20 MTPA by 2050, signalling a structural pull on regional exports. Across ASEAN, Indonesia and Vietnam eye low-cost hydropower sites, though execution hinges on port permitting and bankable offtake deals.

Europe accounted for a significant share of the 2025 output but faces challenges due to increasing renewable curtailment penalties and strict temporal matching regulations. Germany curtailed 8.2 TWh of green power in 2024 and is rolling out dynamic grid fees that add USD 0.20-0.50 per kilogram to hydrogen costs. Still, the continent is knitting a pipeline backbone: the 3,300 km SoutH₂ Corridor and an 11,600 km first-phase Hydrogen Backbone by 2030. Major clusters in the Netherlands and Spain pair offshore-wind PPAs with 200-250 MW electrolyzers, anchoring refinery supply and export ambitions.

In North America, the U.S. Gulf Coast benefits from 1,000 miles of existing hydrogen pipelines and USD 1.2 billion in hub grants, but the accelerated 45V sunset forces projects to reach FID before 2028, triggering more than 4.9 MTPA of cancellations in 2025. Saudi Arabia’s NEOM complex leverages solar resources to deliver green ammonia at USD 1.50-2.50 per kilogram, advancing the region as an export powerhouse. Brazil expects to finalize incentives in 2026 and focus on ammonia export corridors, while South Africa’s platinum and iridium mines supply critical PEM catalysts, raising geopolitical stakes for material security.

Competitive Landscape

The market is fragmented in terms of consolidation standards. Industrial gas leaders Air Liquide, Linde, and Air Products continue to steer long-term offtake via their proprietary pipeline grids and refinery contracts. Air Liquide has earmarked USD 9.36 billion for low-carbon hydrogen and expects to triple hydrogen revenue to over USD 7.02 billion by 2035, leveraging Siemens-Energy stacks in its ELYgator project. Linde remains the lowest-cost supplier on the U.S. Gulf, pairing its nitrogen-hydrogen pipeline with CCS hubs to defend blue volumes until green methods are priced in.

Electrolyzer pure-plays Plug Power, Nel ASA, ITM Power, thyssenkrupp nucera, and Cummins compete on throughput and cost curves. Plug Power shipped 185 MW of PEM units in 2025 but still posted negative gross margins of –30%, highlighting the working-capital squeeze in a deflationary hardware cycle. Thyssenkrupp Nucera secured a 300 MW alkaline order for Moeve’s Onuba project, lifting its order backlog to USD 643.5-994.5 million for fiscal 2026. Nel ASA is doubling its Herøya factory capacity to lower U.S.-delivered costs below USD 400 per kilowatt once scale economies kick in.

Start-ups Enapter and Versogen chase anion-exchange membrane breakthroughs to cut noble-metal dependence, though commercial units beyond 10 MW are still two years out. Solid-oxide trailblazers Ceres Power and Bloom Energy bank on efficiency highs to offset higher stack prices, aiming at steel and process-heat verticals. Consolidation is likely as price wars widen; weaker balance sheets could trigger mergers or strategic exits, while incumbents may absorb specialist IP to secure supply-chain resilience.

Recent Industry Developments

• March 2026: thyssenkrupp nucera won a 300 MW alkaline electrolyzer contract for Moeve’s Onuba project in Spain, slated to produce 45,000 tpa of green hydrogen and cut 250,000 tpa of CO₂.
• March 2026: bp – Iberdrola’s Castellón JV reached 90% completion of a 25 MW PEM electrolyzer that will supply 2,800 tpa of green hydrogen to bp’s refinery.
• February 2026: Air Liquide and Holcim agreed on a project to capture 1.1 million tpa of CO₂ at a Belgian cement plant using Cryocap OXY technology.
• November 2025: Kawasaki broke ground on the 50,000 m³ Ogishima liquid-hydrogen terminal, anchoring Japan’s 3 MTPA import target for 2030.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Air Liquide
• Linde plc
• Air Products
• Shell
• BP
• Engie
• Ørsted
• Plug Power
• Nel ASA
• ITM Power
• Siemens Energy
• Thyssenkrupp Nucera
• Cummins
• Topsoe
• Kawasaki Heavy
• Hyundai Motor Group
• Toyota
• Mitsubishi Power
• Posco Future M
• ADNOC
• ACWA Power

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

Table of Contents

1 Introduction
1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.2.1 Soaring electrolyser manufacturing over-capacity drives price collapse post-2026
4.2.2 IRA-style production tax credits replicated in EU, India, Brazil
4.2.3 Rise of “green-premium” procurement mandates by steel & ammonia buyers
4.2.4 Development of H₂ pipeline corridors in EU, US Gulf & Middle East
4.2.5 Corporate PPAs bundling renewable power + H₂ offtake
4.2.6 Break-through in solid-oxide electrolysis efficiency >85 % (lab-to-pilot)
4.3 Market Restraints
4.3.1 2030-onwards renewable power curtailment penalties (grid fees)
4.3.2 CCS cost inflation undermines blue-H₂ competitiveness
4.3.3 Delay in global H₂ certification interoperability
4.3.4 Geopolitical risk around critical minerals for PEM stacks
4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
4.5 Regulatory & Policy Landscape
4.6 Technological Outlook
4.7 Porter’s Five Forces
4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
4.7.5 Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts
5.1 By Production Method
5.1.1 Green Hydrogen
5.1.2 Blue Hydrogen
5.1.3 Turquoise (Pyrolysis) Hydrogen
5.1.4 Others
5.2 By Electrolyzer Technology
5.2.1 Alkaline
5.2.2 PEM
5.2.3 Solid-Oxide
5.2.4 Anion-Exchange
5.3 By Delivery Form
5.3.1 Compressed Gas
5.3.2 Liquid Hydrogen
5.3.3 Ammonia
5.3.4 LOHC
5.4 By Application
5.4.1 Transportation (FCEV, Rail, Marine, Aviation)
5.4.2 Industrial (Ammonia Production, Methanol Production, Steelmaking, etc)
5.4.3 Power Generation
5.4.4 Others
5.5 By Geography
5.5.1 North America
5.5.1.1 United States
5.5.1.2 Canada
5.5.1.3 Mexico
5.5.2 Europe
5.5.2.1 Germany
5.5.2.2 United Kingdom
5.5.2.3 France
5.5.2.4 Italy
5.5.2.5 NORDIC Countries
5.5.2.6 Russia
5.5.2.7 Rest of Europe
5.5.3 Asia-Pacific
5.5.3.1 China
5.5.3.2 India
5.5.3.3 Japan
5.5.3.4 South Korea
5.5.3.5 ASEAN Countries
5.5.3.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific
5.5.4 South America
5.5.4.1 Brazil
5.5.4.2 Argentina
5.5.4.3 Rest of South America
5.5.5 Middle East and Africa
5.5.5.1 Saudi Arabia
5.5.5.2 United Arab Emirates
5.5.5.3 South Africa
5.5.5.4 Egypt
5.5.5.5 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
6.4.1 Air Liquide
6.4.2 Linde plc
6.4.3 Air Products
6.4.4 Shell
6.4.5 BP
6.4.6 Engie
6.4.7 Ørsted
6.4.8 Plug Power
6.4.9 Nel ASA
6.4.10 ITM Power
6.4.11 Siemens Energy
6.4.12 Thyssenkrupp Nucera
6.4.13 Cummins
6.4.14 Topsoe
6.4.15 Kawasaki Heavy
6.4.16 Hyundai Motor Group
6.4.17 Toyota
6.4.18 Mitsubishi Power
6.4.19 Posco Future M
6.4.20 ADNOC
6.4.21 ACWA Power

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook
7.1 White-space & Unmet-need Assessment

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