硝酸アンモニウム市場シェア分析、業界動向と統計、成長予測 2026-2031年

硝酸アンモニウム市場は2026年に5,343万トン規模となり、予測期間（2026年～2031年）に年平均成長率（CAGR）4.36%で成長し、2031年には5,819万トンに達するとMordor Intelligenceでは予測しています。

Mordor Intelligence（モードーインテリジェンス）「硝酸アンモニウム市場シェア分析、業界動向と統計、成長予測 2026-2031年 – Ammonium Nitrate Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 – 2031)」は硝酸アンモニウムの世界市場を調査し、主要セグメント別に分析・予測を行っています。

調査対象セグメント

• 用途
  • 肥料​​
  • 爆薬
  • その他
• 形態
  • 多孔質粒状
  • 顆粒状
  • 液状／懸濁液
• グレード
  • 農業用
  • 工業用
• 最終用途産業
  • 農業
  • 鉱業
  • 防衛
  • その他
• 地域
  • アジア太平洋地域
    • 中国
    • インド
    • 日本
    • 韓国
    • ASEAN諸国
    • その他のアジア太平洋地域
  • 北米
    • 米国
    • カナダ
    • メキシコ
  • 欧州
    • ドイツ
    • 英国
    • フランス
    • イタリア
    • スペイン
    • 北欧諸国
    • その他の欧州
  • 南米
    • ブラジル
    • アルゼンチン
    • その他の南米
  • 中東＆アフリカ
    • サウジアラビア
    • 南アフリカ
    • その他の中東＆アフリカ

硝酸アンモニウム市場は、炭素排出規制の強化、新興銅・ニッケル鉱山地帯における爆薬を用いた生産の地域化、そして栄養素の放出速度が遅いコーティング顆粒を好む精密農業の普及といった要因に対応しています。鉱山事業者は、より深い鉱床を採掘するために高エネルギー混合物を指定しており、一方、ブルーアンモニアおよびグリーンアンモニアプロジェクトは、埋蔵炭素排出量報告の対象となる下流硝酸塩のコスト構造を再構築しています。ヤラ、CFインダストリーズ、OCIといった既存企業は、自社の地位を守るために低排出原料への投資を進めており、地域的な破壊的イノベーターは、ニッチな再生プログラムや防衛分野向けに、より小型で柔軟な設備を構築しています。硝酸アンモニウム市場は、アジア太平洋地域と南米における成長と、北米および欧州における規制上の逆風とのバランスを取りながら推移しています。

主要レポートの要点

• 用途別に見ると、硝酸アンモニウム市場において、肥料が2025年時点で75.67%のシェアを占め、市場を牽引しました。爆薬用途は2031年まで年平均成長率（CAGR）4.91%で拡大すると予測されています。
• 形態別に見ると、多孔質粒状硝酸アンモニウムが2025年時点で市場規模の60.25%を占め、粒状製品は5.66%のCAGRで成長すると予測されています。
• グレード別に見ると、農業用グレードが2025年時点で市場規模の77.14%を占めました。工業用硝酸アンモニウムは、2031年まで年平均成長率（CAGR）4.89%で最も高い成長率を記録しています。
• 最終用途産業別に見ると、2025年には農業が硝酸アンモニウム市場の78.24%を占め、鉱業は2031年まで年平均成長率5.25%で成長しています。
• 地域別に見ると、アジア太平洋地域は2025年に硝酸アンモニウム市場の45.46%を占め、2026年から2031年にかけて地域別CAGR5.01%で最も高い成長率を記録すると予測されています。

Ammonium Nitrate Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The Ammonium Nitrate Market size is estimated at 53.43 Million tons in 2026, and is expected to reach 58.19 Million tons by 2031, at a CAGR of 4.36% during the forecast period (2026-2031). The ammonium nitrate market is responding to tighter carbon-border policies, localized explosive production near emerging copper and nickel hubs, and precision-agriculture adoption that favors coated granules with slower nutrient release. Mining operators are specifying higher-energy blends to unlock deeper ore bodies, while blue and green ammonia projects are reshaping the cost curve for downstream nitrates qualifying for embedded-carbon reporting. Incumbents such as Yara, CF Industries, and OCI are funneling capital into low-emission feedstock to defend their positions, as regional disruptors build smaller, flexible units that serve niche regenerative programs and defense channels. The ammonium nitrate market continues to balance growth in Asia-Pacific and South America against regulatory headwinds in North America and Europe.

Key Report Takeaways

• By application, fertilizers led the ammonium nitrate market share with 75.67% volume share in 2025; explosives are forecast to expand at a 4.91% CAGR through 2031.
• By form, porous prills accounted for a 60.25% share of the ammonium nitrate market size in 2025, while granular products are set to grow at a 5.66% CAGR.
• By grade, agricultural grade commanded 77.14% share of the ammonium nitrate market size in 2025; industrial grade is tracking the fastest CAGR at 4.89% to 2031.
• By end-user industry, agriculture captured 78.24% of the ammonium nitrate market share in 2025, whereas mining is advancing at a 5.25% CAGR through 2031.
• By geography, Asia-Pacific held 45.46% of the ammonium nitrate market share in 2025 and is projected to post the highest regional CAGR of 5.01% between 2026-2031.

Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.

Global Ammonium Nitrate Market Trends and Insights

Expansion of ANFO and Emulsion Explosives in Large-Scale Surface Mining

Surface coal, copper, and lithium operations are turning to higher-energy ANFO and emulsion blends that reduce drilling density and speed up overburden removal, increasing technical-grade ammonium nitrate consumption. Orica’s 4D bulk-explosives platform combines emulsion with porous prills, offering variable energy output that tailors fragmentation and minimizes unit cost per ton of rock moved. Indonesia’s nickel laterite projects and Chile’s high-altitude copper pits require 20–30% more ammonium nitrate per ton of ore than older ANFO mixes because water ingress undermines conventional fuel-oil blends. Saudi Arabia’s SCCL plans a 300,000 ton-per-year technical-grade plant at Ras Al Khair, demonstrating how Gulf producers intend to localize explosive inputs and serve African mining ventures. As mines chase higher recovery rates, the ammonium nitrate market benefits from a demand profile that is less price-sensitive than agriculture.

Increasing Demand for Fertilizers in Global Agriculture

Baseline nitrogen demand rises as populations grow, yet regional divergence persists: India’s subsidy regime still favors urea, while Brazil’s Cerrado growers move to calcium-ammonium-nitrate to counter soil acidification. The European Union’s Farm to Fork strategy promotes precision technologies, pushing distributors toward polymer-coated granular ammonium nitrate that cuts leaching losses[1]. Argentina’s wheat producers lifted ammonium nitrate purchases 8% in 2025 on currency tailwinds, proving that price swings can override crop-nutrient traditions. The ammonium nitrate market, therefore, hinges on subsidy structures, carbon labeling, and agronomic differentiation rather than bulk nitrogen cost alone. Suppliers that bundle advisory services with coated or CAN products gain pricing power in this uneven policy landscape.

Decarbonised-Ammonia Projects Spurring Low-Carbon Nitrate Adoption

Blue and green ammonia ventures move the ammonium nitrate market toward a two-tier pricing structure as carbon-border adjustments penalize gray feedstock. CF Industries is installing capture units at Donaldsonville and Yazoo City that will abate 2 million tons of CO₂ each year, allowing the firm to brand “blue” ammonium nitrate for CBAM-regulated buyers. Hanwha and INEOS approved a United States blue-ammonia plant exceeding 1 million tons per annum, targeting 2030 start-up and supplying North American nitrate producers affected by emerging disclosure rules. Yara and Lantmännen’s agreement for 50,000 tons per annum of renewable-hydrogen-derived ammonia by 2027 exemplifies the green premium that Northern European distributors accept for climate-neutral labels. As more projects reach financial closure, the ammonium nitrate market gains a low-emission supply path that secures premiums of USD 50–100 per ton in regulated jurisdictions.

Surge in Calcium-Ammonium-Nitrate Demand from Regenerative Farming Programs

Regenerative frameworks prize soil-carbon gains and microbial health, spurring adoption of calcium-ammonium-nitrate that buffers pH and supplies nitrate nitrogen with lower leaching[2]. European distributors logged double-digit volume growth for CAN blends in 2025 as carbon-credit schemes rewarded farmers for reduced nitrous-oxide emissions. In the United States, USD 3 billion in Climate-Smart Commodity grants encourage coated or CAN products that align with emissions metrics. Regional blenders now combine commodity prills with limestone, capturing margin on value-added formulations while easing entry barriers for non-integrated players. The ammonium nitrate market analysis capitalizes on a trend where agronomic functionality overtakes pure cost-per-nitrogen considerations.

Stringent Regulations on Storage and Transport of Ammonium Nitrate

Following safety reviews, the US Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives shortened storage thresholds, compelling many rural distributors to drop ammonium nitrate inventories and pivot to UAN. Canada’s Explosives Regulations impose locked magazines and setback distances that hinder on-farm storage, driving growers toward liquid solutions delivered in bulk. Australia’s state zoning rules ban new depots within 500 meters of residences, shrinking distribution in peri-urban belts. While Asia maintains lighter oversight, the added compliance cost in OECD regions diverts 5–10% of nitrogen demand to substitutes. The ammonium nitrate market must therefore navigate uneven regulatory terrain that erodes its broad-acre fertilizer appeal.

Availability of Substitute Nitrogen Fertilizers (Urea, UAN, Urea + NBPT)

Urea capacity expanded by 8 million tons in 2024–2025, largely in the Middle East and North Africa, depressing prices relative to ammonium nitrate. UAN now supplies 40% of US corn nitrogen, up from 35% in 2020, integrating seamlessly with precision equipment and sidestepping ATF compliance. NBPT-treated urea narrows volatilization losses on high-pH soils in Brazil and Argentina, dulling ammonium nitrate’s agronomic edge. Where safety regulations are strict, the total cost of ownership tips toward urea or UAN despite lower nitrogen-use efficiency. Unless carbon-intensity labeling reallocates value to low-emission nitrate, the ammonium nitrate market faces persistent share leakage to these substitutes.

*Our forecasts treat driver/restraint impacts as directional, not additive. The impact forecasts reflect baseline growth, mix effects, and variable interactions.

Segment Analysis

By Application: Explosives Outpace Fertilizers in Growth Velocity

Explosives expand at a 4.91% CAGR, nearly a full point above the overall ammonium nitrate market, while fertilizers grow more slowly due to urea substitution. Copper and nickel mines in Chile, Peru, and Indonesia use emulsion blends that require 25–35% more technical-grade nitrate per blast than conventional ANFO, driving premium demand for porous prills with consistent density.

Fertilizer demand remains dominant in tonnage but is bifurcating: Europe invests in polymer-coated granular nitrate that satisfies nutrient-efficiency mandates, whereas Asia leans on subsidized urea, relegating ammonium nitrate to specialty crops. Explosives, by contrast, remain less price-sensitive because blasting misfires quickly inflate mining costs, allowing suppliers to command USD 20–30 per ton premiums over agricultural-grade product.

By Form: Granular Gains on Precision Agriculture

Granular product is the fastest-growing form at 5.66% CAGR, although porous prills still held 60.25% of volume in 2025 as the feedstock of choice for ANFO. Precision spreaders require uniform particle size, and polymer-coated granules extend nutrient release across 60–90 days, aligning with Europe’s Farm to Fork goals.

Porous prills maintain dominance in explosives thanks to their ability to absorb fuel oil rapidly, ensuring stable detonation velocity in bulk systems. Integrated producers such as Grupa Azoty hedge bets by manufacturing both forms in the same complex, balancing mining exports with coated fertilizer sales in Central Europe.

By Grade: Industrial Specifications Command Premium

Agricultural-grade ammonium nitrate, 77.14% of the 2025 base in the ammonium nitrate market, grows more slowly due to storage-compliance burdens and government support for urea. Saudi Arabia’s planned 300,000 ton-per-year technical-grade plant will serve Gulf mining and East African copper markets, reflecting the geographic shift in premium demand.

Industrial-grade material expands at 4.89% CAGR, capturing clients in mining, defense, and specialty chemicals that demand <0.3% moisture and tight particle tolerances. Mining firms pay USD 30–50 per ton above agricultural grade to guarantee consistent fragmentation performance, while defense contractors require even cleaner feed for solid-rocket propellants.

By End-User Industry: Mining Surges as Agriculture Plateaus

Agriculture still accounts for 78.24% of volume, but grows more slowly because subsidy frameworks in India and storage rules in North America favor urea and UAN. Defense and automotive segments, although under 2%, secure specialized grades and add margin resilience to the ammonium nitrate market.

Mining expands at a 5.25% CAGR through 2031, benefiting from copper, lithium, and coal projects across South America, Asia-Pacific, and Africa. Chile alone consumed nearly 400,000 tons of technical-grade nitrate in 2025, up 50,000 tons from 2023, as operators aligned with electric-vehicle supply chains.

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific led the global volume with 45.46% in 2025 and is advancing at a 5.01% CAGR, propelled by China’s technical-grade exports to African and Latin American mines and India’s gradual shift from urea dependence toward differentiated nitrates. China’s coal-based ammonia remains cost-competitive, yet exporters increasingly upgrade to porous prills to capture mining premiums, reinforcing the ammonium nitrate market’s supply pivot toward explosives.

North America held a substantial market volume, but ATF rules curtail on-farm storage, pushing distributors toward bulk UAN even as blue-ammonia projects come online to satisfy CBAM-linked buyers in Europe. Canada’s potash and oil-sands industries sustain regional technical-grade demand that bypasses agricultural headwinds.

Europe grapples with CBAM reporting that penalizes high-emission imports, steering buyers toward domestic low-carbon supply such as Grupa Azoty’s Tarnów plant and Yara’s green-ammonia programs. Southern producers rely on North African imports, while Northern regions invest in carbon-capture retrofits to defend market share.

South America’s market volume is driven by Brazil’s soybean expansion and Chile’s copper mining, yet the region lacks integrated capacity and imports porous prills from the Middle East and China, exposing it to freight volatility.

In the Middle East and Africa, Gulf blue-ammonia projects such as QAFCO 7 add 1.2 million tons of low-emission feedstock in 2026, positioning the region as a compliance hedge for European buyers. Saudi Arabia’s forthcoming technical-grade unit and South Africa’s mining uptake round out a diversified demand base.

Competitive Landscape

The Ammonium Nitrate market is moderately consolidated. Dyno Nobel’s decision to leave fertilizer by September 2026 underscores margin pressure in commodity grades and a strategic tilt toward higher-return explosives. Moreover, blue and green ammonia investments by Qatar, Hanwha, and CF Industries reshape the cost curve, with premiums of USD 50–100 per ton available to certified low-carbon nitrates in CBAM markets. Regional blenders exploiting regenerative-farming niches and localized explosives distributors serving remote mining basins add competitive dynamism beneath the top tier.

Recent Industry Developments

• January 2026: Bharat Coal Gasification and Chemicals (BCGCL) awarded an order to Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL). The order, as detailed in the letter of acceptance (LoA), concerns the coal gasification and raw syngas cleaning plant (LSTK 1 Package) for BCGCL’s Coal to 2000 TPD Ammonium Nitrate Project in Odisha, India.
• November 2025: Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals (GNFC) of India unveiled a project to establish a 163,000 tonne/year ammonium nitrate (AN) melt facility at its Bharuch complex in western Gujarat. With an investment of INR 4.5 billion (USD 50 million), this new plant will nearly double GNFC’s AN melt capacity to 338,000 tonnes/year, with operations slated to begin by July 2027.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Abu Qir Fertilizers and Chemical Industries Company
• Acron
• Austin Powder
• Casale SA
• CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
• Dyno Nobel
• ENAEX
• EuroChem Group
• Fertiberia
• Grupa Azoty
• Hanwha Group
• MAXAMCORP HOLDING, SL
• Neochim Plc
• OCI
• Orica Limited
• OSTCHEM
• PJSC KuibyshevAzot
• Qatar Fertiliser Company (Q.P.S.C)
• San Corporation
• Sasol
• URALCHEM JSC
• Yara

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

Table of Contents

1 Introduction

1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.2.1 Surge in calcium-ammonium-nitrate demand from regenerative farming programs
4.2.2 Expansion of ANFO and emulsion explosives in large-scale surface mining
4.2.3 Rising controlled-blasting activity for shale-oil pipeline retrofits
4.2.4 Increasing demand for fertilizers in global agriculture
4.2.5 Decarbonised-ammonia projects spurring low-carbon nitrate adoption
4.3 Market Restraints
4.3.1 Stringent regulations on storage and transport of ammonium nitrate
4.3.2 Availability of substitute nitrogen fertilizers (urea, UAN, urea + NBPT)
4.3.3 Carbon-border-adjustment costs on high-emission ammonium nitrate
4.4 Value Chain Analysis
4.5 Porter’s Five Forces
4.5.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.5.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
4.5.3 Threat of New Entrants
4.5.4 Threat of Substitutes
4.5.5 Degree of Competition

5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value and Volume)

5.1 By Application

5.1.1 Fertilizers
5.1.2 Explosives
5.1.3 Other Application (Gas Generators, Cold Packs, Pyrotechnics, Rocket Propulsion, and Industrial Processes)

5.2 By Form

5.2.1 Porous Prills
5.2.2 Granular
5.2.3 Liquid Solution / Suspension

5.3 By Grade

5.3.1 Agricultural Grade
5.3.2 Industrial Grade

5.4 By End-user Industry

5.4.1 Agriculture
5.4.2 Mining
5.4.3 Defense
5.4.4 Other End-user Industries (Automotive, Food Industry, Oil and Gas, Medical, and Construction)

5.5 By Geography

5.5.1 Asia-Pacific
5.5.1.1 China
5.5.1.2 India
5.5.1.3 Japan
5.5.1.4 South Korea
5.5.1.5 ASEAN Countries
5.5.1.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific
5.5.2 North America
5.5.2.1 United States
5.5.2.2 Canada
5.5.2.3 Mexico
5.5.3 Europe
5.5.3.1 Germany
5.5.3.2 United Kingdom
5.5.3.3 France
5.5.3.4 Italy
5.5.3.5 Spain
5.5.3.6 Nordic Countries
5.5.3.7 Rest of Europe
5.5.4 South America
5.5.4.1 Brazil
5.5.4.2 Argentina
5.5.4.3 Rest of South America
5.5.5 Middle East and Africa
5.5.5.1 Saudi Arabia
5.5.5.2 South Africa
5.5.5.3 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves
6.3 Market Share(%)/Ranking Analysis
6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
6.4.1 Abu Qir Fertilizers and Chemical Industries Company
6.4.2 Acron
6.4.3 Austin Powder
6.4.4 Casale SA
6.4.5 CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
6.4.6 Dyno Nobel
6.4.7 ENAEX
6.4.8 EuroChem Group
6.4.9 Fertiberia
6.4.10 Grupa Azoty
6.4.11 Hanwha Group
6.4.12 MAXAMCORP HOLDING, SL
6.4.13 Neochim Plc
6.4.14 OCI
6.4.15 Orica Limited
6.4.16 OSTCHEM
6.4.17 PJSC KuibyshevAzot
6.4.18 Qatar Fertiliser Company (Q.P.S.C)
6.4.19 San Corporation
6.4.20 Sasol
6.4.21 URALCHEM JSC
6.4.22 Yara

7 Market Opportunities and Future Outlook

7.1 White-space and Unmet-Need Assessment
7.2 Development of Smart Explosives

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