軌道上データセンターの経済展望のマーケットデータ　2026年第2四半期

Orbital Data Centers Economics Outlook

Market Data | 2Q 2026 | MD-ODC-101

事業者別均等化発電コスト予測（$/W）：各ODC事業者について、累積コストスタックと累積有効MW年数を用いて基本原理から算出した、2025年から2035年までの年間均等化発電コスト（$/W）系列。
収束分析：軌道上の均等化発電コスト（$/W）曲線と、地上の3つのベンチマーク（超大型発電、未利用ガス火力発電所、原子力発電）を並べて比較し、収束軌跡と変曲点を示す。

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Investment Timing: Identify the inflection point at which orbital compute levelized $/W converges with terrestrial hyperscale benchmarks—and calibrate investment and partnership decisions accordingly.
Pricing Strategy: Use operator-level levelized $/W trajectories to set commercially defensible pricing for orbital compute services relative to terrestrial alternatives across different customer segments.
Technology Roadmap Prioritization: Understand how launch cost decline rates, solar architecture improvements, and constellation scale drive $/W convergence—and which technology levers matter most.
Risk Assessment: Quantify the economic distance between current orbital $/W and terrestrial benchmarks to assess downside risk in Orbital Data Center (ODC) business cases under conservative launch cost assumptions.

Operator-Level Levelized $/W Forecasts: Annual levelized $/W series 2025–2035 for each ODC operator, calculated from first principles using cumulative cost stacks and cumulative effective MW-years.
Convergence Analysis: Side-by-side comparison of orbital levelized $/W curves against three terrestrial benchmarks—hyperscale, stranded gas, and nuclear—showing the convergence trajectory and inflection points.

Levelized $/W by Operator: What is the true levelized cost of compute per Watt (W) for each ODC operator, calculated as cumulative costs divided by cumulative effective Megawatt (MW)-years delivered?
Convergence Timeline: When does each operator’s levelized $/W trajectory intersect with terrestrial hyperscale, stranded gas, and nuclear benchmarks?
Network Type Economics: How do Kilowatt (kW)-scale edge and orbital hyperscale operators compare on $/W, and what drives the difference?
Terrestrial Benchmark Comparison: How do adjusted terrestrial benchmarks (hyperscale, stranded gas, nuclear) compare on a like-for-like $/W basis, accounting for Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) and utilization?
Sensitivity to Launch Cost: How does the convergence timeline shift under different launch cost decline scenarios—from Starship ramp-up to more conservative trajectories?
Market Total Levelized $/W: What is the blended market-level levelized $/W, weighted by operator effective MW, and how does it evolve through 2035?
Operator and Tech Platform Catalogs: Which operators and technology platform vendors are active in the ODC space, and what are their key characteristics?

ODC Operators and Developers: Using levelized $/W trajectories to refine constellation business cases, set pricing strategies, and identify the technology investments that most accelerate convergence.
Hyperscalers and Cloud Providers: Assessing the timeline and conditions under which orbital compute becomes cost-competitive with terrestrial alternatives for specific workload categories.
Investors and Private Equity: Quantifying the economic gap between current orbital $/W and terrestrial parity to calibrate return assumptions and identify the market conditions that drive convergence.
Defense and Government Procurement: Evaluating the cost premium of orbital compute relative to terrestrial alternatives and assessing when the premium becomes justifiable on a pure economics basis.
Technology Vendors: Understanding how solar architecture, launch cost, and compute density improvements translate into $/W improvement—to prioritize Research and Development (R&D) investments with the highest convergence impact.
Strategy and Corporate Development Teams: Within terrestrial data center operators and satellite companies tracking the long-term competitive threat and opportunity from orbital compute economics.

ODC Levelized $/W by Network Operator, World Markets: 2025 to 2027
ODC Levelized $/W by Network Class, World Markets: 2025 to 2035
ODC Levelized $/W Versus Terrestrial Benchmarks, World Markets: 2025 to 2035
SpaceX ODC Levelized $/W Versus Terrestrial Benchmarks, World Markets: 2025 to 2035
Starcloud Levelized $/W Versus Terrestrial Benchmarks, World Markets: 2025 to 2035
ODC Levelized $/W by Operational Orbit, World Markets: 2025 to 2035
ODC Levelized $/W by Industry Sector, World Markets: 2025 to 2027
ODC Levelized $/W Versus Terrestrial Benchmarks – Convergence Forecast, World Markets: 2025 to 2042
ODC Levelized $/W Versus Terrestrial Benchmarks (%) – Convergence Forecast, World Markets: 2025 to 2042
Orbital Data Center (ODC)/Space Edge ComputingGlobal Operator Overview, As of April 2026
Orbital Data Center (ODC)/Space Edge ComputingTech Platforms Overview, As of April 2026